Scheduled follow-up · Aug 04, 2026
Scheduled follow-up · Aug 01, 2026
Scheduled follow-up · Jun 01, 2026
Scheduled follow-up · May 06, 2026
Scheduled follow-up · May 04, 2026
Completion due · May 04, 2026
Update · Feb 13, 2026, 01:56 PMin_progress
Claim restated: The Treasury said it expected to keep nominal coupon and FRN auction sizes at their currently announced levels for the next several quarters. The contemporaneous basis for this claim is a February 4, 2026 Treasury press release detailing the quarterly refunding and the anticipated auction sizes (nominal coupon and FRN) for the February–April 2026 quarter and beyond. The document explicitly states Treasury’s intention to “maintain nominal coupon and FRN auction sizes for at least the next several quarters.” [Treasury press release, SB0384, 2026-02-04]
Evidence of progress: The press release provides concrete published auction sizes for the February–April 2026 quarter and notes that the Treasury plans to address variations through bill auction sizes or cash management bills, with a stated objective to maintain sizes at current levels for the near term. It also notes ongoing monitoring of
SOMA purchases and private-sector demand for bills, indicating an active management approach aligned with the stated maintenance goal. [Treasury press release, SB0384, 2026-02-04]
Current status and milestones: As of the current date, there is no public Treasury update contradicting the stated objective; the next quarterly refunding announcement was scheduled for May 6, 2026, which would reflect whether sizes were maintained or adjusted. The February release also outlines how adjustments would occur if borrowing needs diverged from projections, suggesting the plan could shift but remains contingent on fiscal conditions. This keeps the claim in an ongoing status rather than completed. [Treasury press release, SB0384, 2026-02-04]
Source reliability and interpretation: The claim derives from an official U.S. Treasury press release, a primary source for debt management policy and auction planning. Given the statement’s placement in an official document and the lack of a conflicting update to date, the interpretation that the policy is ongoing is reasonable. However, programmatic changes would be reflected in later Treasury announcements or refunding statements. [Treasury press release, SB0384, 2026-02-04]
Update · Feb 13, 2026, 12:17 PMin_progress
Claim restated: The Treasury anticipates maintaining nominal coupon and Floating Rate Note (FRN) auction sizes for at least the next several quarters. The source document directly preserves this expectation, stating the sizes will be kept at current levels based on projected borrowing needs. The status is thus tied to ongoing borrowing plans rather than a completed rebalancing of auction sizes.
Evidence of progress: The February 4, 2026 Treasury press release outlines the planned auction sizes for the February–April 2026 quarter and reiterates the intention to hold nominal coupon and FRN auction sizes steady for the next several quarters. It also notes ongoing monitoring of bill auctions, SOMA demand, and potential future adjustments if needed. No implementation changes to the announced sizes are reported within that release.
Current status assessment: As of 2026-02-13, there is no publicly announced reversal or completion of the pledge. The policy remains a projection rather than a final action, with the next quarterly refunding update anticipated to confirm whether sizes have been maintained or adjusted. Therefore, the claim remains in_progress rather than complete.
Dates and milestones: The press release assigns concrete quarterly figures for February–April 2026 and identifies the next refunding announcement as May 6, 2026. Those milestones will determine whether the promised sizes persist beyond the initial several quarters.
Source reliability and incentives: The report is anchored in a U.S. Treasury official press release, a primary source for debt management policy. Treasury’s stated monitoring of market demand and potential “future increases” suggests policy moves would respond to evolving conditions, highlighting the incentive to balance funding needs with market absorption and costs. This supports a cautious, incentive-driven approach rather than a guaranteed, fixed outcome.
Update · Feb 13, 2026, 09:56 AMin_progress
The claim states that Treasury anticipates maintaining nominal coupon and Floating Rate Note (FRN) auction sizes for at least the next several quarters. On February 4, 2026, Reuters reported that the Treasury does not expect to lift auction sizes for notes and bonds for several more quarters, aligning with the February–April 2026 refunding plan. This provides contemporaneous evidence that the published guidance is in effect for upcoming issuance cycles, though it does not guarantee permanence beyond the stated window.
The article details the specific refunding package for February–April 2026, including the target auction sizes for 3-year, 10-year, and 30-year securities, which matched those announced in the prior refunding. The Treasury stressed ongoing evaluation of future increases to auction sizes and noted it would consider trends in structural demand and issuance risks when deciding on changes. This indicates that while current sizes are held steady, adjustments remain possible in the future.
In terms of progress, the Treasury’s messaging and the actual refunding plan show no changes to nominal coupon sizes or FRN auctions in the near term as of early 2026. The TBAC (Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee) minutes cited alongside the refunding note suggest market expectations of potential size increases later, potentially late 2026 or 2027. Thus, the current status is consistent with maintaining sizes for the next several quarters but not a guaranteed continuation beyond that horizon.
Despite the current alignment, some sources note market expectations and dealer perspectives that increases could occur in the medium term, depending on funding needs and demand. The reliability of the claim rests on Treasury statements and the TBAC minutes, both of which indicate a cautious, data-driven approach rather than a firm, long-term commitment. Overall, the available evidence supports a near-term maintenance stance with the possibility of future adjustments.
Reliability note: Reuters is a widely used, reputable source for U.S. Treasury policy and market moves, corroborated by associated TBAC communications referenced in the same coverage. The claim mirrors Treasury-issued refunding documents and official guidance, making the near-term status verifiable and consistent with public records. Caution remains warranted about longer-term certainty given fiscal dynamics and market demand.
Update · Feb 13, 2026, 06:57 AMin_progress
Restatement of the claim: Treasury anticipated maintaining nominal coupon and FRN auction sizes for at least the next several quarters, based on current projected borrowing needs. Evidence of progress: The February 4, 2026 Treasury quarterly refunding announcement explicitly states the plan to keep nominal coupon and FRN auction sizes at current levels for the upcoming quarters, with a table showing anticipated sizes through February–April 2026 and notes about potential future adjustments. Status as of now: There is no public Treasury update contradicting the February 4 statement; the press release frames this as the continuing policy unless borrowing needs or market conditions change. Reliability of sources: The primary source is the Treasury’s official press release, which provides the authoritative account of planned auction sizes and the rationale for maintaining them.
Update · Feb 13, 2026, 04:40 AMin_progress
Restated claim: The Treasury anticipated maintaining nominal coupon and floating-rate note (FRN) auction sizes for at least the next several quarters, based on current projected borrowing needs. The February 4, 2026 Quarterly Refunding Statement reiterates that Treasury expects to keep nominal coupon and FRN auction sizes at current levels through the February–April 2026 period, with further evaluation for potential future increases guided by demand and issuance profiles. The announcement also provides concrete auction-size tables and a schedule for the next quarter, reinforcing the intention to hold sizes steady for the near term. Evidence of progress: The Treasury laid out explicit auction sizes for February–April 2026 and noted ongoing monitoring of SOMA holdings, bill demand, and seasonal variations, with adjustments to be made as needed. Progress status: The claim is in_effect for the near term but not yet completed, as the policy explicitly allows for potential changes if financing needs or market conditions require it.
Update · Feb 13, 2026, 03:05 AMin_progress
Restatement of the claim: Treasury anticipated maintaining nominal coupon and FRN auction sizes at current levels for at least the next several quarters. The February 4, 2026 Quarterly Refunding Statement is the source of this forward guidance. This is a policy stance rather than a near-term action with a fixed end date.
Update · Feb 13, 2026, 12:30 AMin_progress
What the claim states: The Treasury anticipated maintaining nominal coupon and FRN auction sizes for at least the next several quarters, based on current projected borrowing needs. The statement comes from the Treasury’s February 4, 2026 quarterly refunding press release.
Progress evidence: The February 4 release presents auction-size tables and confirms that nominal coupon and FRN sizes are expected to remain at current levels through the February–April 2026 quarter, with ongoing monitoring of demand and potential adjustments if needed.
Current status: There is no announced change to the stated sizes as of the February–April 2026 quarter. The document also flags that future increases or changes could be considered based on borrowing needs and issuance profiles, indicating the plan remains contingent on evolving conditions.
Dates and milestones: The release covers auctions scheduled for February 10–12, 2026 and notes the next quarterly refunding announcement on May 6, 2026, which will signal any updates to sizes.
Reliability and interpretation: The source is the Treasury’s official press release, making it the authoritative reference for this claim. The language shows a cautious stance, with explicit acknowledgement that sizes could change if borrowing needs or structural demand shift.
Update · Feb 12, 2026, 08:38 PMin_progress
The claim is that Treasury anticipates maintaining nominal coupon and Floating Rate Note (FRN) auction sizes for at least the next several quarters. A Feb. 4, 2026 Treasury press release explicitly states this expectation in the context of the February–April 2026 refunding, with a detailed table of planned auction sizes and a note that Treasury will monitor conditions and consider future increases in nominal coupon and FRN sizes based on demand and issuance profiles.
Progress evidence from the Feb. 4, 2026 refunding announcement shows the Treasury proceeded with a $125 billion refunding while maintaining announced auction sizes across multiple maturities, and it reaffirms forward guidance to hold sizes steady for several quarters.
A Reuters summary corroborates that the Treasury does not expect to lift auction sizes for notes and bonds for several quarters, aligning with the claim and with TBAC discussions about a potential but gradual shift later rather than immediately.
The press release also notes ongoing monitoring of bill issuance, TIPS, and FRN financing, and it indicates that any future increases would depend on trends in structural demand and costs/risks of issuance profiles. Concrete milestones cited include the February–April 2026 auction sizes and the expectation to maintain those levels through mid-2026, with the next quarterly refunding announcement in May 2026.
Source reliability: the Treasury’s own press release provides the primary claim, and Reuters offers independent corroboration; both sources are reputable and consistent on the forward guidance.
Update · Feb 12, 2026, 05:23 PMin_progress
Claim restatement: The Treasury stated that, based on current projected borrowing needs, it anticipates maintaining nominal coupon and Floating Rate Note (FRN) auction sizes for at least the next several quarters. This guidance was issued in a February 4, 2026 refunding announcement from the Treasury.
Progress evidence: The Treasury’s February 4 press materials and subsequent Reuters coverage confirm that the department did not plan to increase auction sizes for notes and bonds in the near term, and that sizes for the February–April 2026 refunding were unchanged from prior levels. Market-reported minutes (TBAC) and commentary aligned with the guidance to hold sizes steady for several quarters.
Status of completion: As of February 12, 2026, there is no public evidence of a change away from the stated plan to maintain current nominal coupon and FRN auction sizes in the near term. The Treasury signaled continued evaluation of potential future increases, but no announced changes to the announced levels for the upcoming quarter(s).
Dates and milestones: The February 4, 2026 refunding announcement outlined the 2-, 3-, and 10-, 30-year auction sizes for the quarter and stated the intention to keep nominal coupon and FRN sizes steady for the next several quarters. The next quarterly refunding update is typically issued in May 2026, which would confirm ongoing guidance.
Source reliability note: The primary source is the U.S. Treasury press release (February 4, 2026) and corroborating reports from Reuters, both high-quality and directly reflecting official policy guidance. These sources align on the stated intent to maintain current auction sizes through at least the near term, with explicit caveats about monitoring demand and potential future adjustments.
Follow-up considerations: If the Treasury issues a May 2026 refunding/update or if TBAC minutes indicate a shift, that would modify the status. A precise follow-up date is provided below.
Update · Feb 12, 2026, 03:37 PMin_progress
What the claim states: The Treasury anticipates maintaining nominal coupon and Floating Rate Note (FRN) auction sizes at the currently announced levels for at least the next several quarters. What evidence exists of progress: The Treasury’s February 4, 2026 quarterly refunding statement reiterates that, based on current projected borrowing needs, it expects to keep nominal coupon and FRN auction sizes steady for the near term. It also provides specific planned sizes for February–April 2026, signaling adherence to the current plan across most maturities. The document notes ongoing monitoring of bill auctions and potential adjustments if borrowing needs change. Completion status: The policy remains in effect as described, with no reversal indicated; however, the statement also notes that Treasury will evaluate potential future increases in auction sizes if demand trends justify it, indicating conditionality rather than a final completion.
Update · Feb 12, 2026, 01:57 PMin_progress
Restated claim: The Treasury anticipated maintaining nominal coupon and Floating Rate Note (FRN) auction sizes at their current levels for at least the next several quarters. The February 4, 2026 quarterly refunding statement confirms this intention, stating that based on current projected borrowing needs, sizes would be kept near the announced levels for the ensuing quarters. The document also notes that future changes could occur if structural demand or issuance profiles shift.
Update · Feb 12, 2026, 12:08 PMin_progress
Claim restated: Treasury anticipated maintaining nominal coupon and FRN (floating rate note) auction sizes for at least the next several quarters. The official February 4, 2026 quarterly refunding announcement repeatedly states that sizes would be kept at current levels while monitoring demand and considering future adjustments based on borrowing needs.
Progress evidence: The Treasury published a detailed refunding plan with auction sizes held steady for the February–April 2026 quarter (2-year, 3-year, 5-year, 7-year, 10-year, 20-year, 30-year, and FRN) and indicated ongoing evaluation of potential future increases tied to demand trends. Reuters coverage of the same release corroborates that no changes to nominal coupon sizes or FRN issuance were planned for several quarters.
Current status: As of the current date (February 12, 2026), the Treasury has not implemented a change to the announced auction sizes and continues to monitor market conditions and borrowing needs. The stated intention is to maintain sizes through the upcoming quarters unless new fiscal considerations prompt a revision.
Milestones and dates: The next formal refunding announcement is expected on May 6, 2026, with further details on auction sizes and issuance plans for the May–August 2026 period (per the Treasury schedule). The February 4 press release provided the baseline and the February–April 2026 table of auction sizes, which remain unchanged.
Source reliability: The primary source is the U.S. Treasury’s own official press release, which provides the authoritative statement on auction sizes. Reuters’ contemporaneous reporting corroborates the Treasury’s guidance and adds market interpretation, strengthening reliability. Overall, both sources present a consistent, nonpartisan view focused on debt management incentives and market demand.
Update · Feb 12, 2026, 09:58 AMin_progress
Restated claim: The Treasury stated that, based on current projected borrowing needs, it anticipated maintaining nominal coupon and FRN auction sizes for at least the next several quarters (Feb–Apr 2026 and beyond). The source is the Treasury’s February 4, 2026 Quarterly Refunding Statement (press release SB0384).
Evidence of progress: The February 4, 2026 release explicitly lays out auction-size levels for the February through April 2026 quarter, with nominal coupon and FRN sizes maintained at current announced levels. It also notes ongoing monitoring of bill demand and potential adjustments via bills/CMBs as needed (Treasury, SB0384).
Current status: As of the current date (2026-02-11), the Treasury appears to be executing the plan to keep nominal coupon and FRN auction sizes steady through the indicated quarter, with no announced deviations from the stated sizes in the release. The document also signals readiness to address variations through near-term issuance tweaks if borrowing needs shift (Treasury, SB0384).
Dates and milestones: The press release provides a concrete quarterly snapshot for Feb–Apr 2026, including the explicit statement to maintain sizes “for at least the next several quarters” and a table of auction sizes for Nov 2025 through Apr 2026. It also forecasts possible future adjustments depending on issuance needs (Treasury, SB0384).
Source reliability and incentives: This assessment relies on the U.S. Treasury’s own quarterly refunding statement, a primary, authoritative source for debt-management plans. The Treasury’s emphasis on monitoring SOMA demand and potential future size changes reflects financial-policy incentives to manage borrowing costs and liquidity while adapting to market conditions (Treasury, SB0384).
Follow-up note: If market conditions or borrowing needs shift, the Treasury indicated it would adjust bill issuance and related instruments. A follow-up review should verify whether the announced sizes were maintained through the next quarterly refunding update (May 6, 2026) and any subsequent revisions.
Update · Feb 12, 2026, 05:22 AMin_progress
Restatement of claim: The Treasury indicated that, based on current projected borrowing needs, it anticipated maintaining nominal coupon and FRN auction sizes for at least the next several quarters (Feb 4, 2026 press release).
Evidence of progress: The Feb 4, 2026 quarterly refunding statement explicitly provided the sizes for upcoming auctions and stated the goal of keeping nominal coupon and FRN sizes at current levels for the near term. It also described ongoing monitoring of bill auctions, TIPS, and FRN sizing as part of its debt management plan.
Progress status: No subsequent official update in the provided materials shows a completed reversal or definitive cancellation of the maintained-size plan. Given the statement references “the next several quarters,” the status remains in_progress pending the next refunding announcements and any adjustments Treasury may make if borrowing needs change.
Dates and milestones: The Feb 4, 2026 release lists specific auction sizes for February–April 2026 and notes continued monitoring. The next quarterly refunding update is scheduled for May 6, 2026, which will serve as a milestone to confirm whether the policy continues to hold.
Source reliability: The primary source is the U.S. Treasury press release (Feb 4, 2026), an official government document. The wording is explicit about intended auction sizing in the near term, and the document provides concrete auction-size tables. Cross-checks with independent outlets may exist, but the Treasury release itself is the authoritative source for this claim.
Follow-up note: If the goal is to verify whether the maintenance stays in effect, the May 6, 2026 quarterly refunding announcement should be consulted for any changes to nominal coupon and FRN auction sizes.
Update · Feb 12, 2026, 03:53 AMin_progress
The claim states that Treasury anticipates maintaining nominal coupon and Floating Rate Note (FRN) auction sizes for at least the next several quarters. The Treasury’s February 4, 2026 quarterly refunding statement explicitly reiterates this plan, listing the current nominal coupon and FRN auction sizes as the intended baseline for the coming quarters (February–April 2026) and signaling that any changes would be evaluated based on borrowing needs and conditions. This establishes an intent rather than a completed action. No evidence yet indicates a deviation from these announced sizes within the quoted quarter or immediate follow-on announcements at that time.
Progress evidence: The February 4, 2026 press release provides the specific auction sizes for multiple maturities and notes that Treasury will address seasonal or unexpected variations through changes to bill auction sizes or cash management bills, implying that the maintained levels are contingent on ongoing debt management needs rather than a fixed mandate. It also notes ongoing monitoring of SOMA holdings and demand, which could influence future adjustments. The document itself is the primary source confirming the stated intention at that time.
Completion status: As of the current date (2026-02-11), there is no published update showing the sizes were formally locked in for the entire “next several quarters” beyond the February–April 2026 quarter. Therefore, the status remains a planned maintenance of sizes rather than a completed, fixed outcome. The “next several quarters” phrasing indicates potential changes could occur if borrowing needs or market conditions shift.
Reliability note: The source is the U.S. Treasury’s official press release (Deputy Assistant Secretary Brian Smith) dated February 4, 2026, which is the most direct and authoritative document for Treasury’s borrowing plan. Coverage of the same claim from secondary outlets should be treated cautiously if they do not cite the Treasury release itself. This report focuses on the primary source to assess progress and current status.
Update · Feb 12, 2026, 02:15 AMin_progress
Claim restatement: The Treasury anticipated maintaining nominal coupon and FRN auction sizes for at least the next several quarters. Evidence of progress: The February 4, 2026 Treasury quarterly refunding press release explicitly states the intention to hold nominal coupon and FRN sizes steady through the February–April 2026 quarter, with an associated auction schedule and ongoing monitoring. Reliability and corroboration: Reuters coverage of the same Treasury stance supports the claim, reflecting consistent messaging from an official source. Status and milestones: There is no completion date; the stance is forward-looking and contingent on borrowing needs, with the next milestone being the May 6, 2026 quarterly refunding announcement to confirm whether sizes are maintained beyond the initial window.
Update · Feb 12, 2026, 12:04 AMin_progress
Restated claim: The Treasury anticipated maintaining nominal coupon and FRN auction sizes for at least the next several quarters.
Evidence of progress: The February 4, 2026 Quarterly Refunding Statement outlined a $125 billion refunding for February–April 2026 and stated that nominal coupon and FRN auction sizes would remain at current levels through the quarter, with future adjustments guided by structural demand and costs.
Evidence of completion status: No change to the stated sizes has been reported; the guidance remains forward-looking. The next quarterly update (May 6, 2026) will show actual sizes and any deviations.
Dates and milestones: Key dates include Feb 4, 2026 for the refunding announcement, the Feb–Apr 2026 auction schedule, and the May 6, 2026 update. The claim targets multiple upcoming quarters dependent on borrowing needs.
Source reliability: The primary source is the Treasury’s official press release, with Reuters corroborating the guidance and market context; both are high-quality and clearly attributed.
Update · Feb 11, 2026, 09:26 PMin_progress
Restated claim: The Treasury anticipated maintaining nominal coupon and FRN auction sizes for at least the next several quarters. The February 4, 2026 press release explicitly states this intention and provides the relevant sizing guidance.
Update · Feb 11, 2026, 08:17 PMin_progress
Claim restated: The Treasury anticipated maintaining nominal coupon and Floating Rate Note (FRN) auction sizes for at least the next several quarters, based on current borrowing needs.
Evidence to date shows the Treasury, in its February 4, 2026 refunding announcement, stated it did not expect to lift auction sizes for notes and bonds for several more quarters and would maintain current offering sizes. The accompanying TBAC minutes highlighted potential longer-term considerations and a possible later increase, but did not indicate an immediate change to announced sizes. Reuters summarized the stance as keeping auction sizes steady for the near term while evaluating future increases based on demand and issuance needs.
As of now, there is no completed change to the announced sizes, and the Treasury continues to monitor market demand and fiscal needs before adjusting issuance plans. Market participants noted expectations that any increases would likely occur later in 2026 or into 2027, rather than in the near term, reflecting ongoing uncertainty about future financing needs. The claim remains plausible but contingent on evolving fiscal conditions and market demand.
Reliability note: The core public sources are the Treasury’s quarterly refunding communication and TBAC minutes, corroborated by Reuters coverage; both are primary or high-quality reporting on official policy and market expectations. While Reuters reports on market reactions and expert commentary, it reflects interpretation rather than a direct policy reversal.
In summary, the claim is not contradicted by current disclosures and remains effectively in_progress while the Treasury evaluates potential future adjustments; no definitive change has occurred to violate the stated intention.
Follow-up is suggested for around 2026-05-04 to assess whether any changes to nominal coupon or FRN auction sizes were implemented in the next refunding cycle or subsequently.
Update · Feb 11, 2026, 05:38 PMin_progress
Restated claim: The Treasury anticipated maintaining nominal coupon and FRN (Floating Rate Note) auction sizes for at least the next several quarters, based on current projected borrowing needs.
Progress evidence: Treasury publicly outlined a $125 billion refunding for February–April 2026 and stated that auction sizes for nominal coupons and FRNs would be kept at current levels for the coming quarters. Reuters and Treasury press materials corroborate that guidance, including the explicit phrase that sizes would be maintained for several quarters and that only future considerations for increases would occur after evaluating demand and costs.
Current status: As of February 2026, the Treasury had not announced a change to nominal coupon or FRN auction sizes and indicated ongoing assessment of issuance profiles, with no firm completion of a size increase. The stance is framed as guidance for the near term, not a finished policy change.
Milestones and dates: The February 4, 2026 refunding announcement set next auctions (3-, 10-, and 30-year) and projected ongoing bill and FRN activity through the quarter, with a follow-up quarterly refunding scheduled for May 6, 2026. The Treasury signaled continued monitoring of
SOMA refinancing needs and potential future size adjustments based on demand trends.
Source reliability: The primary source is the U.S. Treasury press release dated February 4, 2026 (SB0384), with corroborating coverage from Reuters. Both sources present consistent statements about maintaining current auction sizes in the near term and evaluating increases later, lending high reliability to the claim. Overall, reporting reflects official policy guidance rather than partisan framing.
Update · Feb 11, 2026, 03:28 PMin_progress
Claim restatement: The Treasury said it expects to maintain nominal coupon and FRN auction sizes at their currently announced levels for at least the next several quarters, based on projected borrowing needs.
Evidence of progress: The February 4, 2026 Treasury refunding announcement reiterates that there will be no near-term changes to nominal coupon or FRN auction sizes, and it references continued analysis of issuance strategies in light of structural demand (TBAC context noted in Reuters coverage). Reuters also reports that dealers and TBAC minutes show expectations of holding sizes steady into mid-2026, with potential later adjustments contemplated for late 2026 or 2027.
Status assessment: As of today, there is no completed change to auction sizes; the policy guidance remains that sizes will be kept near current levels for several quarters. The completion condition—sizes remaining at current levels for the indicated period—has not yet occurred, since the guidance is still in effect and relies on evolving borrowing needs and demand.
Dates and milestones: Key reference points include the Treasury’s February 4, 2026 refunding announcement and the TBAC minutes cited in press coverage, which project steady sizes through mid-2026 with possible future increases contemplated for late 2026 or 2027. The Reuters summary notes market expectations align with keeping sizes steady through at least the next few quarters, without an imminent reduction or increase.
Source reliability note: The claim originates from the Treasury’s official refunding statement (SB0384) and is corroborated by Reuters coverage of the same announcement, which notes market-consensus expectations and TBAC context. Both sources are reputable, with the Treasury providing primary policy guidance and Reuters offering independent consolidation and analysis of the statements.
Follow-up note: Monitor Treasury refunding announcements and TBAC minutes for any formal shifts in guidance, particularly in late 2026 when expectations for nominal coupon and FRN sizes may change.
Update · Feb 11, 2026, 02:02 PMin_progress
Claim restated: Treasury anticipated maintaining nominal coupon and FRN auction sizes for at least the next several quarters. Evidence: the February 4, 2026 Quarterly Refunding Statement reiterates that, based on current projected borrowing needs, sizes are expected to stay at current levels through the next several quarters, with a detailed Feb–Apr 2026 table. Status: the assertion remains in effect for the near term; the next quarterly refunding update will occur in May 2026 to confirm or adjust the stance. Reliability: this is an official Treasury release, which directly states policy expectations and provides concrete figures; independent verification is limited to subsequent Treasury disclosures.
Update · Feb 11, 2026, 12:04 PMin_progress
Claim restatement: The Treasury said it expects to maintain nominal coupon and 2-year FRN auction sizes at current announced levels for the next several quarters. The source explicitly states this expectation in the February 4, 2026 Quarterly Refunding Statement (SB0384).
Evidence of progress: The February 4, 2026 release provides the planned auction sizes for the February–April 2026 quarter and notes that the overall financing plan will address changes via bill/CMB adjustments while keeping nominal coupon and FRN sizes broadly flat for several quarters. It also shows concrete, near-term auction schedules and notes ongoing monitoring of demand and issuance profiles.
Progress toward completion: As of February 11, 2026, the claim remains a forecasting stance rather than a completed action. Treasury indicates it will evaluate potential future increases and adapt to borrowing needs, but no final decision to raise sizes is announced in the cited document. The next quarterly refunding announcement (for May 2026) would confirm any change in policy if one occurs.
Dates and milestones: Key date is February 4, 2026 (SB0384 release) with the February–April 2026 auction table; the next formal update is the May 6, 2026 refunding announcement. Source reliability: The information comes from the U.S. Department of the Treasury’s official press release, which is the authoritative source for debt management decisions.
Follow-up: If there is a change in nominal coupon or FRN auction sizes, it will likely be reflected in the May 6, 2026 quarterly refunding update and related Treasury notices (e.g., auction schedule PDFs).
Update · Feb 11, 2026, 09:50 AMin_progress
What the claim states: The Treasury anticipates maintaining nominal coupon and Floating Rate Note (FRN) auction sizes for at least the next several quarters, based on current projected borrowing needs.
What evidence exists that progress has been made: The Treasury’s February 4, 2026 Quarterly Refunding Statement confirms current plans to keep nominal coupon and FRN auction sizes at or near the levels announced, with explicit language that sizes will be maintained for the next several quarters and that potential future increases will be evaluated as conditions evolve. The release also provides a concrete schedule for the February–April 2026 quarter and outlines how sizes would be adjusted if borrowing needs shift.
Evidence of completion, progress, or delay: As of February 10, 2026, the statement itself is the primary evidence of progress toward the stated goal. There is no completion date in the document; the policy remains in effect until Treasury updates its issuance plan. The next quarterly refunding announcement is scheduled for May 6, 2026, which will indicate whether the maintenance of sizes continued into the subsequent quarter.
Concrete milestones and dates: February 4, 2026—Treasury articulates maintained nominal coupon and FRN auction sizes for the coming quarters; February–April 2026 auction schedule is specified (2-year FRN, 3-year, 10-year, 30-year, etc.). Next milestone: May 6, 2026 quarterly refunding announcement confirming or adjusting sizes for the May–August 2026 period. The press release also notes related actions on bills, TIPS, and buybacks that could influence issuance dynamics.
Reliability of sources: The information comes directly from the U.S. Treasury’s official press release, a primary source for debt management guidance. While the document is authoritative, it reflects projections based on current borrowing needs and is inherently subject to change if fiscal conditions or market demand shift. Overall, it is a high-quality, official source for this claim.
Update · Feb 11, 2026, 05:45 AMin_progress
Claim restated: The Treasury anticipated maintaining nominal coupon and FRN auction sizes at current announced levels for the next several quarters, based on current borrowing needs.
Evidence of progress: In the February 4, 2026 Quarterly Refunding Statement, the Treasury reiterated that, based on current projected borrowing needs, it anticipated keeping nominal coupon and FRN auction sizes steady for the near term and monitor for any changes. The document also laid out the anticipated auction schedule through the February–April 2026 quarter, showing no planned increases to these sizes in that period.
Progress status: As of February 10, 2026, there has been no public update indicating a change in the stated policy. The next formal update (the May 6, 2026 quarterly refunding announcement) will be the key milestone to confirm whether the sizes were maintained through the anticipated “next several quarters.”
Milestones and dates: The Feb 4, 2026 press release specifies auction sizes for February–April 2026 and notes ongoing evaluation of potential future increases, with a plan to address borrowing needs via other tools if needed. The completion condition—sizes remaining at current levels—remains unverified as completed until the next refunding statement is published.
Reliability note: The primary source is the U.S. Treasury press release, a definitive government document. Coverage from secondary outlets aligns with the Treasury announcement but should be secondary to the official document for policy details.
Update · Feb 11, 2026, 03:28 AMin_progress
What the claim states: The Treasury anticipated maintaining nominal coupon and FRN auction sizes for at least the next several quarters, based on current projected borrowing needs. The February 4, 2026 Quarterly Refunding Statement reiterates that assessment and provides the specific sizes planned for February–April 2026, with a commitment to hold sizes near current levels barring changes in demand or financing needs. The document also notes ongoing evaluation of potential future increases to those sizes, depending on structural demand and issuance profiles. Overall, the claim reflects a forward-looking stance rather than a completed action.
What progress exists toward the claim: The Treasury published detailed auction size tables for November 2025 through January 2026 and projected sizes for February–April 2026, indicating a stable borrowing plan in the near term. The statement also describes how seasonal variations would be addressed via changes in bill auction sizes or cash management bills, if needed. This demonstrates adherence to the stated goal of maintaining sizes in the near term while monitoring demand trends.
Evidence of completion, progress, or changes: As of the current date, the Treasury has not announced a change to the stated plan; the claim remains in the planning/monitoring phase. The next quarterly refunding announcement is scheduled for May 6, 2026, which will indicate whether any adjustments were made to auction sizes. No final completion event is documented in the Feb 4 release.
Dates and milestones: The key milestone explicitly referenced is the February–April 2026 quarter, with nominal coupon and FRN sizes kept at current levels per the press release. The subsequent milestone is the May 6, 2026 quarterly refunding announcement, which will confirm or adjust the published sizes. The source is the Treasury's own press release, which provides official, timely figures.
Source reliability and incentives: The primary source is the U.S. Department of the Treasury, a highly reliable official briefing on debt management. The Treasury explicitly notes monitoring of
SOMA purchases and demand for bills, signaling a data-driven approach and an intent to adjust if financing needs or market conditions change. Given the Treasury’s institutional incentives to plan and communicate borrowing needs, the information should be treated as authoritative for near-term financing projections.
Update · Feb 11, 2026, 02:40 AMin_progress
The claim restates Treasury guidance that nominal coupon and FRN (Floating Rate Note) auction sizes would be maintained for at least the next several quarters. The official source is Treasury's February 4, 2026 press release, which explicitly says: Based on current projected borrowing needs, Treasury anticipates maintaining nominal coupon and FRN auction sizes for at least the next several quarters.
Progress to date includes Treasury’s announced refunding plan for the February 2026 quarter, with detailed auction sizes shown for nominal coupons and FRN across maturities (2-year through 30-year) and a plan to address seasonal variations via bill/CMB adjustments. The release also provides a table of actual sizes for November 2025 through January 2026 and the anticipated sizes for February through April 2026, indicating concrete milestones in the commitment.
The statement also notes potential future changes: Treasury says it continues to evaluate potential future increases to nominal coupon and FRN auction sizes, focusing on structural demand and the costs/risks of various issuance profiles. This indicates the policy is conditional and contingent on borrowing needs and market conditions, not a fixed guarantee.
As of the current date (Feb 10, 2026), the policy remains as described in the release, with the next quarterly refunding announcement due May 6, 2026. No final completion occurs until Treasury confirms continued maintenance of the sizes across those future quarters.
Reliability note: the source is a primary, official Treasury press release detailing explicit auction sizes and future intentions, making it the strongest available authority for this claim. The document also acknowledges that changes could occur in response to shifting borrowing needs and market demand, which informs the neutral interpretation of the status as ongoing rather than completed.
Follow-up date: 2026-05-06
Update · Feb 11, 2026, 12:17 AMin_progress
Claim restatement: The Treasury said it anticipates maintaining nominal coupon and FRN auction sizes for at least the next several quarters, based on current projected borrowing needs. This was stated in a Treasury Quarterly Refunding Statement released February 4, 2026.
Evidence of progress: The February 4, 2026 release includes detailed auction size tables for the February–April 2026 quarter and reiterates that sizes are expected to remain at current levels through the next several quarters. It also notes monitoring of bill demand and potential near-term adjustments only as needed.
Current status versus completion: As of the current date (February 10, 2026), the pledge remains in the planning/forecast stage rather than completed action. No finalizing of changes beyond the stated expectation has occurred; the statement itself indicates ongoing assessment and a conditional path.
Dates and milestones: The press release specifies the February–April 2026 auction plan with nominal coupon and FRN sizes, and flags a follow-up quarterly refunding announcement on May 6, 2026 to communicate any updates. The stated baseline is that sizes stay near current levels for several quarters.
Source reliability: The primary source is a formal Treasury press release (SB0384) dated February 4, 2026, which provides the official articulation of the policy stance. This is the most authoritative document for the claim; corroboration from market-wide outlets is supportive but not necessary for the core finding.
Follow-up note: If you want to track progress, review Treasury’s May 6, 2026 quarterly refunding announcement for updates on nominal coupon and FRN auction sizes and any adjustments tied to evolving borrowing needs.
Update · Feb 10, 2026, 10:18 PMin_progress
Restated claim: The Treasury anticipated maintaining nominal coupon and FRN auction sizes for at least the next several quarters.
Evidence of progress: The February 4, 2026 Quarterly Refunding Statement from the Treasury confirms current auction sizes and reiterates that nominal coupon and FRN sizes are expected to be maintained for the coming quarters, with a detailed schedule for February–April 2026 and notes on addressing borrowing variations.
Current status: There have been no public updates indicating a change to the announced sizes as of the current date; the statement frames the sizes as steady through the next several quarters.
Dates and milestones: The next quarterly refunding announcement is scheduled for May 6, 2026; the stated plan covers February–April 2026, with ongoing monitoring of SOMA activity and potential future adjustments based on demand and costs.
Source reliability and incentives: The information derives from the Treasury’s official press materials, the primary source for debt-management decisions; no contradictory official updates have emerged to date.
Update · Feb 10, 2026, 08:35 PMin_progress
Claim restatement: The Treasury anticipates maintaining nominal coupon and Floating Rate Note (FRN) auction sizes for at least the next several quarters. This was stated in the February 4, 2026 Quarterly Refunding Statement from the Treasury (Dept. of the Treasury press release). The claim reflects planned issuance sizes for the February–April 2026 refunding quarter and ongoing monitoring of borrowing needs.
Evidence of progress: The February 4, 2026 statement explicitly provides the anticipated sizes for nominal coupon and FRN auctions to be kept at current levels for the next several quarters, with a detailed table showing planned sizes through February–April 2026. It also notes ongoing monitoring of bill auctions, TIPS, and FRN issuance, consistent with maintaining the stated sizing framework (Treasury press release).
Progress status: As of February 2026, the Treasury has publicly reaffirmed the maintenance of nominal coupon and FRN auction sizes for the near term, and the referenced refunding announcements and auction schedules for February–April 2026 align with that commitment. There is no indication of a reversal or cancellation in subsequent Treasury communications up to the current date (Treasury press release).
Dates and milestones: Key milestones include the February 4, 2026 Quarterly Refunding Statement, with specific auction dates in February 2026 (2-year FRN and other maturities) and the plan to address upcoming quarterly needs through standard bill and CMB adjustments. The next quarterly refunding announcement was scheduled for May 6, 2026 (per the same Treasury material), which will serve as a follow-up on the stated sizing approach (Treasury press release).
Source reliability and caveats: The primary source is the U.S. Department of the Treasury’s official February 4, 2026 press release, which directly states the commitment to maintain auction sizes. While Treasury communications are authoritative for policy and issuance plans, market conditions can still prompt near-term adjustments; the claim concerns planned policy rather than an event already completed. The impact of macroeconomic shifts or fiscal developments would be reflected in future statements if changes occur (Treasury press release).
Follow-up note: If the objective is to confirm continued adherence to the stated sizing approach, a follow-up should review the May 6, 2026 quarterly refunding announcement for any changes to nominal coupon/FRN auction sizes or to issuance strategy (follow_up_date: 2026-05-06).
Update · Feb 10, 2026, 05:29 PMin_progress
What the claim states: Treasury anticipated maintaining nominal coupon and Floating Rate Note (FRN) auction sizes for at least the next several quarters based on current borrowing needs. What the evidence shows: the February 4, 2026 refunding announcement reaffirmed that auction sizes would be kept at or near current levels, with the Treasury signaling it would monitor for potential future increases but did not expect near-term changes. The accompanying TBAC minutes and Reuters coverage corroborate a stance to hold sizes steady for several quarters while evaluating issuance profiles.
Update · Feb 10, 2026, 03:30 PMin_progress
The claim concerns Treasury guidance that nominal coupon and FRN auction sizes would be maintained at current levels for the next several quarters. The Treasury press release of February 4, 2026 explicitly states this expectation based on projected borrowing needs. It presents the plan as a financing outline rather than a completed change in policy. There is no evidence in the report of an immediate adjustment to sizes.
Update · Feb 10, 2026, 01:48 PMin_progress
What the claim states: The Treasury anticipated maintaining nominal coupon and Floating Rate Note (FRN) auction sizes for at least the next several quarters, based on current projected borrowing needs. This is a forward-looking statement rather than a completed action.
Progress evidence: The Treasury’s February 4, 2026 quarterly refunding statement explicitly says it expects to keep nominal coupon and FRN auction sizes at current levels for the coming quarters, with tables showing planned sizes through February–April 2026 and notes about potential future adjustments. The document also outlines contingencies for seasonal or unexpected borrowing variations via bill auctions and CMBs.
Current status against completion: There is no completed milestone to report because the claim describes an ongoing policy stance and forecast. As of the current date, Treasury publicly states an intention to maintain sizes for “the next several quarters,” and does not declare a final, completed stabilization of those sizes.
Dates and milestones: Key dates include the Feb 4, 2026 Treasury press release, the scheduled auctions in February–April 2026, and the next quarterly refunding announcement on May 6, 2026. The statement also notes ongoing evaluation of future increases in nominal coupon and FRN sizes in response to demand and issuance profiles. Reliability note: The primary source is the Treasury’s official press release, which provides the exact forecast and related auction-size tables; no corroborating third-party claims contradict this forecast within available public records.
Follow-up: Monitor the May 6, 2026 quarterly refunding announcement for any upward or downward revisions to nominal coupon/FRN sizes and any formal updates to the long-run issuance plan.
Update · Feb 10, 2026, 12:19 PMin_progress
Claim restated: The Treasury anticipates maintaining nominal coupon and FRN auction sizes at current levels for at least the next several quarters, per the February 4, 2026 quarterly refunding statement.
Evidence of progress: The February 2026 Treasury press release outlines actual planned auction sizes for the February–April 2026 quarter and states the expectation to keep nominal coupon and FRN sizes at current levels for several quarters. It also describes ongoing monitoring of
SOMA purchases and potential near-term adjustments to bill auctions if needed. No completion event is declared in this document.
Current status and milestones: As of the referenced filing, the sizes are projected to remain unchanged into the next several quarters, with explicit schedules for the February–April 2026 period and a plan to reassess in subsequent refunding announcements. The next quarterly refunding announcement is scheduled for May 6, 2026, which could confirm any changes if they occur.
Reliability and context: The source is an official Treasury press release (SB0384) dated February 4, 2026, which provides the authority and rationale for maintaining auction sizes. While the statement sets expectations, it does not guarantee future behavior beyond the stated horizon and remains contingent on borrowing needs and market conditions. Market-neutral framing and lack of speculative language support a cautious interpretation of the claim.
Overall assessment: At present, the claim is best characterized as in_progress, since the policy stance is forward-looking and contingent on evolving borrowing needs; there is no definitive completion date or completion condition achieved yet. The official document explicitly notes that Treasury will monitor demand and may adjust issuance profiles as appropriate, reinforcing the provisional nature of the commitment.
Update · Feb 10, 2026, 09:48 AMin_progress
Statement under review: Treasury indicated it expects to maintain nominal coupon and FRN auction sizes for at least the next several quarters, based on current projected borrowing needs. The claim reflects forecasting rather than a completed policy action.
Progress evidence: The Treasury’s February 4, 2026 quarterly refunding release presents expected tabled auction sizes for February–April 2026 and reiterates that nominal coupon and FRN financing sizes are to be kept at current levels. It also notes ongoing monitoring and potential future adjustments depending on demand and fiscal conditions. No final adjustment or reversal is reported as of the current date.
Status of completion: There is no completion event in the record. The document frames a directional stance to sustain sizes in the near term with the possibility of marginal increases later, contingent on borrowing needs and market demand. Therefore, the claim remains in_progress rather than completed.
Dates and milestones: The press release specifies the February–April 2026 quarter’s planned sizes and notes the next quarterly refunding announcement will occur on May 6, 2026. The claim’s implied horizon (several quarters) aligns with this ongoing cycle of quarterly updates. No concrete changes to announced sizes are documented in this issue.
Source reliability and caveats: The primary source is the U.S. Treasury’s official press release, a highly reliable reference for debt management policy. Secondary media coverage in financial outlets corroborates the talking point but should be weighed against the primary document. Monitor the May 6, 2026 refunding update for any changes to the stated policy.
Follow-up note: The next formal update is expected on May 6, 2026. A status check on whether nominal coupon and FRN auction sizes remain at current levels should be performed then to determine if the forecasted stability held or if adjustments occurred.
Update · Feb 10, 2026, 05:40 AMin_progress
Claim restated: Treasury anticipated maintaining nominal coupon and Floating Rate Note (FRN) auction sizes for at least the next several quarters, based on current borrowing needs (Treasury press release, Feb 2026).
Progress evidence: Reuters reporting (Feb 4, 2026) confirms the Treasury does not expect to lift auction sizes for notes and bonds for several quarters, aligning with the February refunding plan and the stated guidance to hold sizes steady. The Treasury also signaled ongoing evaluation of future increases, focusing on structural demand and issuance costs/risks, with TBAC minutes discussing potential timing of changes.
Current status: As of Feb 9, 2026, auction sizes are expected to remain at or near current levels through at least mid-2026, with no announced increases in nominal coupon or FRN sizes in the near term.
Dates and milestones: The February 2026 refunding details (125 billion) and the accompanying guidance to maintain current sizes through the coming quarters constitute the primary milestone. Market coverage corroborates the absence of imminent changes to sizing, pending changes in financing needs or demand.
Reliability assessment: Reuters is a high-quality, widely used financial news source; the Treasury press release provides the official stance. Taken together, they support a cautious, data-driven continuation of current auction sizes in the near term.
Update · Feb 10, 2026, 04:57 AMin_progress
The claim states that Treasury anticipates maintaining nominal coupon and Floating Rate Note (FRN) auction sizes for at least the next several quarters. The Treasury’s February 4, 2026 Quarterly Refunding Statement confirms this posture, stating that based on current projected borrowing needs it anticipates maintaining nominal coupon and FRN auction sizes for at least the next several quarters.
The document outlines the actual auction sizing for the February–April 2026 quarter and notes that any seasonal or unexpected variations would be addressed via regular bill auctions or cash management bills, with potential future increases under ongoing review. It provides a detailed table of anticipated sizes for multiple maturities through March and April 2026, consistent with maintaining existing levels rather than immediate expansion or reduction.
Progress toward the claim is evidenced by the published plan for the February–April 2026 period, including the stated maintenance of nominal coupon and FRN sizes and ongoing monitoring of
SOMA purchases and demand. There is explicit language about evaluating future increases, but no current commitment to changing the announced sizes in the near term.
The next milestone is the Treasury’s quarterly refunding announcement, scheduled for May 6, 2026, which will indicate whether the maintained-size stance persists or if adjustments are announced. The primary, authoritative source is the Treasury, with secondary coverage from reputable financial news outlets that reiterate the Treasury language. No official reversal of the stance has been reported to date.
Reliability note: The Treasury press release sb0384 is the definitive source for auction-size policy in this period. While media reporting can add context, it should be weighed against this official document; as of now, there is no contrary official statement.
Update · Feb 09, 2026, 11:39 PMin_progress
The claim states that the Treasury anticipates maintaining nominal coupon and FRN auction sizes for at least the next several quarters.
Public evidence from the February 4, 2026 Treasury press release confirms this intent, tying it to current projected borrowing needs and stating that auction sizes are expected to remain steady in the near term.
The release also outlines the refunding plans for the quarter, including the specific February–April 2026 auctions and the use of bills and cash management operations to address variations, situating the claim within ongoing issuance activity.
As of now, there is no completed milestone; Treasury indicates ongoing monitoring and potential future adjustments, which is consistent with a status of staying the same for the near term rather than a finalized expansion or reduction.
Reliability rests on the Treasury as the primary source; the press release provides the exact language and tables referenced, making it the authoritative basis for this claim.
Update · Feb 09, 2026, 09:45 PMin_progress
Claim restatement: Treasury anticipated maintaining nominal coupon and FRN auction sizes for at least the next several quarters based on current projected borrowing needs (Feb 4, 2026).
What progress exists: The Treasury’s quarterly refunding statement confirms planned auction sizes and notes monitoring of
SOMA purchases and potential future adjustments, while signaling no near-term change to nominal coupon/FRN sizes.
Current status: The statement frames the maintenance as an anticipated outcome rather than a completed commitment for the entire horizon, indicating ongoing evaluation and potential future changes if demand or issuance profiles shift.
Reliability and follow-up: The source is an official Treasury press release (SB0384). A follow-up should occur after the next quarterly refunding announcement to verify whether sizes were maintained, targeted for May 6, 2026.
Update · Feb 09, 2026, 08:07 PMin_progress
What the claim states: The Treasury anticipates maintaining nominal coupon and FRN auction sizes for at least the next several quarters, based on current borrowing needs. What evidence exists of progress: The Treasury's February 4, 2026 Quarterly Refunding Statement presents the planned auction sizes for February–April 2026 and explicitly states it anticipates keeping nominal coupon and FRN auction sizes at current levels for the next several quarters. It also notes ongoing monitoring and potential future adjustments to issuance profiles if conditions change, with a May 6, 2026 update to follow the next quarterly refunding announcement. Dates and milestones: The key milestones are the February–April 2026 auction sizes and the May 6, 2026 refunding announcement; the statement covers the February–April quarter and outlines the next steps if borrowing needs shift. Reliability note: The information comes from an official Treasury press release, a primary source for debt-management plans, making it the most authoritative reference for this claim. Overall assessment: As of early February 2026, the claim is in progress, with the specified sizes slated to persist across the Feb–Apr 2026 quarter unless conditions necessitate adjustments.
Update · Feb 09, 2026, 05:27 PMin_progress
Brief restatement of the claim: Treasury anticipated maintaining nominal coupon and FRN auction sizes for at least the next several quarters based on current projected borrowing needs (Treasury press release, Feb 4, 2026).
Progress evidence: The Feb 4, 2026 Treasury release states that current sizes will be kept near current levels for the near term and notes ongoing monitoring of
SOMA purchases and demand for bills, with potential future increases under review (Treasury, Feb 4, 2026).
Current status: As of 2026-02-09 there has been no published change to nominal coupon or FRN auction sizes; the statement remains a forecast pending future Treasury announcements (May quarterly refunding announcement is the next milestone).
Reliability and context: The primary source is the Treasury’s own press release, a highly reliable official document; secondary coverage aligns with the stated forecast but does not supersede the official text.
Update · Feb 09, 2026, 03:21 PMin_progress
Summary of the claim: The Treasury stated that, based on current projected borrowing needs, it anticipated maintaining nominal coupon and Floating Rate Note (FRN) auction sizes for at least the next several quarters. Evidence of progress: The February 4, 2026 Treasury quarterly refunding update explicitly reiterates the plan to keep nominal coupon and FRN auction sizes at current levels for the near term, and provides the anticipated sizes for February–April 2026. Current status: No public Treasury notice has indicated a change to these auction sizes since that February 4 release; the policy remains to maintain current announced levels in the near term. Dates and milestones: The February 4, 2026 quarterly refunding announcement is the key milestone supporting the claim, with the next update (around May 6, 2026) serving as the follow-up milestone for any changes. Reliability and incentives: The source is Treasury’s official publication, which is highly reliable; the statement aligns with debt-management considerations and the incentives to balance issuance profile with borrowing needs and costs.
Update · Feb 09, 2026, 01:49 PMin_progress
What the claim states: Treasury anticipated maintaining nominal coupon and Floating Rate Note (FRN) auction sizes for at least the next several quarters, based on current borrowing needs. The source explicitly quotes this stance and frames it as a plan rather than a completed action (Feb. 4, 2026 press release).
Progress to date: The February 4, 2026 Treasury press release details the planned auction sizes for the February–April 2026 quarter and states that sizes will be kept at current levels for nominal coupon and FRN auctions, with monitoring of demand factors and potential future adjustments under consideration. This reflects a policy projection rather than a milestone of execution.
Completion status: There is no evidence in the cited document that the sizes have definitively changed or that a formal completion of the promise has occurred. The language centers on ongoing maintenance for the near term and ongoing assessment of issuance profiles, not a completed action.
Reliability and context: The source is an official Treasury press release, which is the primary document for debt management policy. The claim aligns with Treasury’s stated framework of adjusting issuance based on evolving borrowing needs and market conditions, though it remains contingent on future fiscal outlook and market dynamics.
Update · Feb 09, 2026, 12:02 PMin_progress
Claim restated: The Treasury anticipates maintaining nominal coupon and Floating Rate Note (FRN) auction sizes for at least the next several quarters, based on current projected borrowing needs. This language appeared in Treasury’s February 4, 2026 quarterly refunding press release and reflects a forward-looking issuance stance tied to management of funding needs.
Evidence of progress: The February 4, 2026 release outlines the planned sizes for the February–April 2026 quarter, and explicitly states the expectation to keep nominal coupon and FRN auction sizes steady for the following quarters. It also provides a table of announced and anticipated auction sizes across maturities for that period, indicating a base level of issuance activity rather than an abrupt change.
Progress toward completion: There is no published update within the given date range (through February 9, 2026) showing a change to the stated sizes or a formal completion of a multi-quarter stabilization. The claim is a stated forecast rather than a completed action; the Treasury notes it will monitor borrowing needs and adjust as appropriate, which implies the outcome remains contingent and ongoing.
Dates and milestones: The key document is the Treasury press release dated February 4, 2026, with the next quarterly refunding announcements typically issued in May 2026. The statement of maintaining auction sizes is tied to the February–April 2026 quarter and projection beyond, but no final completion date is specified in the source.
Reliability note: The primary source is the U.S. Treasury itself, which provides the explicit policy forecast and auction-size table. Secondary coverage (e.g., financial news outlets) has echoed the Treasury’s stance, but the official refunding statement remains the definitive reference for the claim. The claim’s reliability rests on the Treasury’s ongoing disclosure of borrowing needs and auction plans.
Update · Feb 09, 2026, 09:29 AMin_progress
The claim states that Treasury anticipates maintaining nominal coupon and FRN auction sizes for at least the next several quarters. This was articulated in Treasury’s February 4, 2026 Quarterly Refunding Statement and remains the stated expectation in that document.
The February 4, 2026 release confirms the planned 2-year FRN and nominal coupon sizes and provides a detailed table of anticipated auction sizes for February–April 2026, indicating no immediate plans to increase those sizes beyond current levels. The document notes Treasury will address near-term needs with bills and other instruments as needed, but does not indicate a shift away from the maintained sizes for the horizon described.
As of the current date (February 8, 2026), there is no public Treasury update contradicting the February 4 statement. The completion condition would require a formal change to announced sizes; without such a change, the claim remains in_progress but not yet completed. The next quarterly refunding announcement is scheduled for May 6, 2026, which will likely address any adjustments.
Source reliability is high, given the information comes directly from a U.S. Treasury press release (official.gov source). The document provides explicit figures and timing for auction sizes through April 2026 and states Treasury’s ongoing monitoring of borrowing needs and market conditions.
Update · Feb 09, 2026, 04:57 AMin_progress
What the claim states: The Treasury indicated it expects to keep nominal coupon and Floating Rate Note (FRN) auction sizes at their currently announced levels for at least the next several quarters. This is a forward-looking statement tied to borrowing needs and financing plans.
Progress evidence: The Treasury’s February 4, 2026 Quarterly Refunding Statement reiterates that, based on current projected borrowing needs, it anticipates maintaining nominal coupon and FRN auction sizes for at least the next several quarters. The document also provides a quarter-by-quarter table of anticipated auction sizes for Feb–Apr 2026, illustrating the intended stability in these categories alongside adjustments in bills, TIPS, and FRN sizing as needed.
Current status of completion: There is no completion event to verify; the statement describes an ongoing policy stance rather than a finalized action. Given that the policy hinges on evolving borrowing needs and market conditions, the “next several quarters” phrasing indicates a continuing objective rather than a completed milestone.
Dates and milestones: The key milestone is the February 4, 2026 press release, which states the intention to maintain current nominal coupon and FRN auction sizes through the February–April 2026 quarter and notes monitoring of related financing factors. A next quarterly refunding announcement is slated for May 6, 2026, which could reflect any necessary adjustments moving forward.
Update · Feb 09, 2026, 02:53 AMin_progress
Restated claim: The Treasury anticipates maintaining nominal coupon and FRN (Floating Rate Note) auction sizes for at least the next several quarters. This was stated in the February 4, 2026 Treasury press release describing the February–April 2026 refunding quarter, with a table showing sizes held steady across maturities for that period.
Progress evidence: The Treasury’s statement explicitly asserts stability of nominal coupon and FRN auction sizes for multiple upcoming quarters, and the refunding plan provides current and near-term auction sizes. The release notes monitoring of
SOMA purchases and potential future changes, but maintains the plan to keep current sizes unless borrowing needs shift significantly. The next quarterly refunding announcement is scheduled for May 6, 2026, which will indicate whether sizes continue to hold.
Update · Feb 09, 2026, 01:10 AMin_progress
What the claim states: Treasury anticipates maintaining nominal coupon and FRN auction sizes for at least the next several quarters. Evidence of progress: The February 4, 2026 Treasury press release confirms that, based on current borrowing needs, nominal coupon and FRN auction sizes are expected to remain at current levels for the next several quarters, and it provides the specific February–April 2026 auction sizes. Status of completion: There is no completed change to the announced sizes; the plan remains a forecast with potential adjustments described as possibilities rather than commitments. Milestones and dates: The press release notes the upcoming February–April 2026 quarter sizes and states that the next quarterly refunding announcement will occur on May 6, 2026. Source reliability: The information comes from an official Treasury press release, a primary source for debt management, with no contradictory reporting found in this search. Follow-up: A check on May 6, 2026, or subsequent Treasury updates can confirm whether the forecast remained unchanged or was adjusted.
Update · Feb 08, 2026, 11:26 PMin_progress
The claim states that Treasury anticipates maintaining nominal coupon and FRN auction sizes for at least the next several quarters. A February 4, 2026 Treasury press release confirms this stance for the February–April 2026 period and provides auction-size tables showing current levels. As of February 8, 2026, there is no published update reversing this plan; it remains in effect with quarterly updates anticipated going forward.
Update · Feb 08, 2026, 08:58 PMin_progress
Claim restated: Treasury anticipates maintaining nominal coupon and FRN auction sizes for at least the next several quarters. Evidence from the February 4, 2026 press release (SB0384) confirms the stated expectation for the February–April 2026 quarter and notes that sizes are expected to stay at current levels given projected borrowing needs, with upcoming revisions assessed as needed. The release also provides a detailed schedule and indicates that the next quarterly refunding announcement will occur on May 6, 2026, indicating ongoing monitoring and potential adjustments.
Update · Feb 08, 2026, 07:32 PMin_progress
Restatement of the claim: The Treasury announced that, based on current projected borrowing needs, it anticipates maintaining nominal coupon and FRN auction sizes for at least the next several quarters.
Evidence of progress: The February 4, 2026 Treasury press release explicitly states the intended maintenance of nominal coupon and FRN auction sizes through the February–April 2026 quarter and notes ongoing monitoring of bill auctions and related issuance. It also provides a concrete quarterly table of anticipated sizes for Feb–Apr 2026, indicating stability relative to the prior quarter.
Current status assessment: As of 2026-02-08, the policy stance is a stated intention rather than a concluded action. The completion condition — that sizes remain at the announced levels for the indicated period — has not been demonstrated as completed, since the next quarterly refunding announcement (May 6, 2026) will confirm or adjust those sizes.
Dates and milestones: The press release covers the February–April 2026 quarter, with the next explicit update due in May 2026. The announced plan includes maintaining auction sizes across nominal coupons and FRNs, subject to revisions based on evolving borrowing needs and demand. It also outlines related actions on bills, TIPS, and buybacks that may influence overall issuance.
Source reliability note: The claim relies on an official Treasury press release, which is the primary, authoritative source for debt management policy. While market reporting can provide context, the most reliable verification will come from Treasury’s May 6, 2026 refunding announcement and any subsequent updates.
Update · Feb 08, 2026, 04:59 PMin_progress
The claim states that Treasury anticipates maintaining nominal coupon and Floating Rate Note (FRN) auction sizes for at least the next several quarters. Reuters coverage of the February 4, 2026 refunding and issuance plan confirms that the Treasury does not expect to lift auction sizes for notes and bonds for several more quarters, aligning with the claim's premise. The report notes that the announced refunding totals $125 billion and specifies the planned auction sizes for 3-year, 10-year, and 30-year issues, with no changes to nominal coupon or FRN sizes.
The evidence shows progress toward the claim: the Treasury explicitly reaffirmed a steady-size stance in its issuance plan and TBAC minutes, indicating continued maintenance of existing nominal coupon and FRN auction levels through at least the near term. The February 4 announcement highlighted that the next auction package would mirror prior levels, suggesting no near-term policy shift in auction sizing. The presence of TBAC feedback signaling potential future size adjustments remains separate from the current guidance and does not contradict the stated maintenance in the near term.
As for completion, there is no final completion date or formal end condition. The Treasury’s guidance is to maintain current sizes for the next several quarters, with potential increases in the future acknowledged but not implemented yet. Market interpretation indicates dealers expect increases later in 2026 or into 2027, which would mark the point at which the completion condition is satisfied or superseded. The reliability of the sources—Reuters reporting on Treasury statements and TBAC minutes—supports a cautious, ongoing maintenance rather than an announced completion.
Sources indicate a reliable alignment between the claim and official guidance: the February 4, 2026 Reuters article (and TBAC context) corroborate no near-term changes to nominal coupon and FRN auction sizes. The reporting triangulates the Treasury plan, the auction breakouts ($58B 3-year, $42B 10-year, $25B 30-year), and the absence of adjustments to coupon or FRN sizes. Given the stated near-term persistence vs. potential longer-term shifts, the assessment remains cautious and neutral, pending future Treasury guidance or TBAC updates.
Update · Feb 08, 2026, 03:08 PMin_progress
Brief restatement of the claim: Treasury anticipated maintaining nominal coupon and Floating Rate Note (FRN) auction sizes for at least the next several quarters, based on current projected borrowing needs. The February 4, 2026 Treasury press release confirms this stance and provides detailed auction sizing for the February–April 2026 quarter, including plans to address variations via regular bill auctions and cash management bills.
Evidence of progress: The February–April 2026 plan lays out the specific nominal coupon and FRN auction sizes across maturities and notes ongoing monitoring of issuance profiles. The document describes how Treasury will respond to changing needs with bill auctions, CMBs, and adjustments if necessary, indicating active planning rather than a completed change.
Status note: As of February 8, 2026, the policy to maintain current nominal coupon and FRN auction sizes remains in place but not yet shown as completed; future quarters will depend on incoming borrowing needs and market dynamics. The next formal refunding update is scheduled for May 6, 2026, which will indicate whether the policy persisted.
Dates and milestones: The key milestone is the February 4, 2026 refunding announcement detailing the February–April 2026 sizes, with a follow-up expected May 6, 2026. The release also notes ongoing monitoring of
SOMA purchases and potential future adjustments to issuance profiles.
Source reliability and incentives: The analysis relies on the Treasury’s official press release, a primary source for debt-management plans. The agency emphasizes responsiveness to borrowing needs, suggesting incentives to keep issuance stable absent material changes in fiscal or market conditions.
Update · Feb 08, 2026, 01:22 PMin_progress
Claim restatement: The Treasury anticipates maintaining nominal coupon and FRN auction sizes for at least the next several quarters, based on current projected borrowing needs.
Evidence of progress: Treasury published a February 4, 2026 quarterly refunding announcement confirming that, for the February–April 2026 quarter, nominal coupon and FRN auction sizes would be kept at current levels, with a plan to address variations via bills/CMBs (Treasury press release, SB0384). The document includes a detailed table of anticipated sizes for February through April 2026.
Current status as of 2026-02-08: There is no publicly reported change to the announced auction sizes since the February 4 release. The policy statement remains in place, with the next formal update expected in the May 2026 refunding notice.
Dates and milestones: Key milestone is the February 4, 2026 press release which sets the 2-, 3-, 5-, 7-, 10-, 20-, and 30-year auction sizes for the February–April 2026 period and notes ongoing monitoring of borrowing needs. The next quarterly refunding announcement is scheduled for May 6, 2026 (per the same Treasury notice).
Source reliability and incentives: The source is the U.S. Department of the Treasury, an authoritative and official channel for debt management policy. The statement aligns with Treasury’s standard practice of issuing updated auction sizes in quarterly refunding announcements and adjusting via bills/CMBs if needed.
Update · Feb 08, 2026, 11:59 AMin_progress
What the claim states: The Treasury anticipated maintaining nominal coupon and Floating Rate Note (FRN) auction sizes at their currently announced levels for at least the next several quarters, based on current projected borrowing needs. This is a forward-looking statement tied to the agency’s planned funding needs and issuance plan.
Evidence of progress: The Treasury’s February 4, 2026 press release explicitly reiterates that, based on current projected borrowing needs, it anticipates maintaining nominal coupon and FRN auction sizes for at least the next several quarters. It also provides a concrete quarterly table of intended auction sizes for February–April 2026, illustrating the maintained levels across nominal coupon and FRN categories (e.g., 2-, 3-, 5-, 7-, 10-, 20-, 30-year auctions and FRN).
Current status of the promise: As of the current date (February 8, 2026), the claim remains a forecast tied to ongoing debt management planning. Treasury notes it will address variations through bill auction sizes or cash management bills if needed and signals openness to future adjustments, but the stated intention is to keep sizes broadly unchanged in the near term.
Dates and milestones: The press release dates the impending auctions for February 10–12, 2026 and sets expectations for the remainder of the quarter through April 2026, with a May 6, 2026 follow-up quarterly refunding announcement. The document also mentions monitoring demand and considering potential future adjustments to issuance sizes depending on borrowing needs and structural demand.
Source reliability and notes: The key source is the Treasury’s own February 4, 2026 press release, a primary and authoritative document for debt management policy. While the claim is a forecast, the derivative details (specific auction sizes by maturity) provide concrete, verifiable benchmarks. The Treasury’s statements reflect its stated incentives to manage the SOMA portfolio and borrowing costs while adapting to macro conditions.
Update · Feb 08, 2026, 09:44 AMin_progress
The claim states that Treasury anticipates maintaining nominal coupon and FRN auction sizes for at least the next several quarters. The source text from the Treasury press release dated February 4, 2026 explicitly conveys this intention as part of the February–April 2026 refunding plan. The claim corresponds directly to the stated policy stance in that release, making the assertion credible as of the date published.
Evidence of progress shows Treasury outlining specific auction sizes for both nominal coupon and FRN securities across the February–April 2026 quarter, with a plan to address borrowing needs via regular bills, CMBs, and periodic notes/bonds. The press release also notes ongoing monitoring of
SOMA purchases and potential future adjustments based on structural demand and borrowing needs. This demonstrates active planning and the expectation that current sizes will be maintained in the near term.
As for whether the promise is completed, it is not yet implementationally finished since the validity covers a future quarter (February–April 2026) and the announcement itself is a planning document. The completion condition—keeping auction sizes at current levels for the indicated next several quarters—has not been fully tested or finalized, given ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty and potential policy shifts. The next quarterly refunding announcement is scheduled for May 6, 2026, which will clarify whether the sizes were maintained.
Concrete milestones cited include the announced auction sizes by maturity (2-, 3-, 5-, 7-, 10-, 20-, 30-year; and FRN) for the Feb–Apr 2026 period, plus the mention of maintaining TIPS and bill issuance at current levels into mid-March and adjusting as needed around tax dates. The document also outlines a plan to address seasonal or unexpected variations through bill sizes and CMBs, indicating a mechanism to preserve the guidance if conditions shift. These elements provide trackable near-term progress indicators.
Update · Feb 08, 2026, 05:17 AMin_progress
Claim restatement: Treasury anticipated maintaining nominal coupon and Floating Rate Note (FRN) auction sizes for at least the next several quarters, based on current projected borrowing needs. The source article from the Treasury press office reiterates this guidance as part of the quarterly refunding announcement. Reuters independently reported on February 4, 2026 that the Treasury does not expect to lift auction sizes for notes and bonds for several more quarters, aligning with the Treasury’s stated stance.
Progress evidence: The Treasury’s February 2026 refunding plan outlined specific auction sizes (e.g., $58 billion 3-year, $42 billion 10-year, $25 billion 30-year) and stated that nominal coupon and FRN sizes would remain unchanged in the near term. Reuters’ coverage corroborates that the TBAC minutes and Treasury guidance point to maintained sizes through the upcoming quarters, with dealers noting no near-term increases anticipated.
Status assessment: There is no completed milestone signaling a change in policy; rather, the current documentation and market reporting indicate the policy remains in effect for multiple upcoming quarters. The “next several quarters” guidance implies continuation beyond the immediate refunding period, but without a firm end date, making final completion uncertain at this time.
Dates and milestones: The key dates are the Treasury’s February 2026 refunding announcement and the contemporaneous Reuters report dated February 4, 2026. The reported sizes and the guidance to maintain them through the next several quarters constitute the principal milestones referenced by credible outlets. No contrary official statement has emerged to indicate a near-term change.
Source reliability note: The Treasury release is an official government communication; Reuters is a widely trusted financial news agency with editorial standards. Cross-checks with TBAC minutes reinforce the consistency of the narrative. While market expectations may diverge, the public record up to February 2026 supports the claim as of that date.
Follow-up note: If the Treasury issues a new refunding statement or TBAC minutes indicate a formal shift in auction sizing, a follow-up update should be issued by around mid-2026 to confirm whether the policy remains in effect.
Update · Feb 08, 2026, 02:53 AMin_progress
Claim restatement: Treasury anticipated maintaining nominal coupon and Floating Rate Note (FRN) auction sizes at current levels for at least the next several quarters. Evidence from the Treasury press release (SB0384, Feb 4, 2026) explicitly states that, based on current projected borrowing needs, nominal coupon and FRN auction sizes would be kept near their present levels for the near-term quarters. The February refunding package outlined in the release confirms an unchanged structure for the near term, including sizes for 2-, 3-, 5-, 7-, 10-, 20-, and 30-year issues and the FRN.
Additional corroboration comes from Reuters reporting on Feb 4, 2026, which quotes Treasury as not expecting to lift auction sizes for notes and bonds for several more quarters, aligning with market expectations and the announced $125 billion refunding for February–April 2026. The article also notes the Treasury’s ongoing evaluation of future increases, should conditions in structural demand or costs warrant a change, but no change was signaled for the near term in that release.
Evidence of progress toward the claim includes the concrete, near-term actions: the February refunding details, including $58B 3-year, $42B 10-year, and $25B 30-year auctions, were set to proceed with auction sizes maintaining the current levels, and the press release states that looking ahead, the Treasury would maintain nominal coupon and FRN sizes for at least the next several quarters. TBAC minutes released around the same period also reflect market expectations and modeling that support holding sizes steady rather than increasing them imminently, though they note potential later adjustments as fiscal conditions evolve.
Dates and milestones available to date show no deviations from the stated policy in the February 2026 refunding cycle: the near-term auction plan through April 2026 remains at current levels, with a scheduled May 6, 2026 quarterly refunding announcement to outline subsequent steps. The reliability of the sources is high: the Treasury’s official SB0384 release provides the primary basis for the claim, and Reuters offers corroboration from a reputable news outlet interpreting those statements for financial markets. Taken together, the evidence suggests the policy stance is maintained for the next several quarters, with explicit openness to future adjustments if conditions change.
Update · Feb 08, 2026, 01:20 AMin_progress
Restated claim: The Treasury anticipated maintaining nominal coupon and Floating Rate Note (FRN) auction sizes for at least the next several quarters, based on current borrowing needs. The Feb. 4, 2026 Treasury press release explicitly affirmed this guidance for the February–April 2026 quarter and indicated a broader intention to keep sizes stable in the near term. Reuters coverage of the same day mirrored this assessment, noting that the Treasury did not expect to lift auction sizes for notes and bonds for several quarters and would address funding needs through other instruments as needed. No documented reversal of this stance appears in public Treasury materials as of early February 2026.
Update · Feb 07, 2026, 11:18 PMin_progress
Claim restated: Treasury anticipated maintaining nominal coupon and FRN auction sizes at current announced levels for at least the next several quarters. Evidence shows this is an anticipation tied to projected borrowing needs rather than a completed action, as articulated in the February 4, 2026 press release. The release also lays out the specific auction sizes for February–April 2026 and indicates ongoing monitoring and potential future adjustments, signaling plan-based progress rather than finalization. No definitive completion is reported as of the current date; progress hinges on evolving borrowing needs and policy decisions.
Update · Feb 07, 2026, 09:04 PMin_progress
Restated claim: The Treasury anticipates maintaining nominal coupon and FRN auction sizes for at least the next several quarters.
Evidence of progress: The February 4, 2026 Treasury quarterly refunding announcement confirms current nominal coupon and FRN auction sizes and states they will be kept at current levels for the next several quarters, with additional context on related issuance (bills, TIPS) and monitoring of SOMA activity.
Status relative to completion: The policy is described as ongoing and contingent. While sizes are set for the February–April 2026 quarter, the release also signals the possibility of future adjustments if borrowing needs or market conditions change, so the milestone is not definitively completed.
Dates and milestones: The release specifies auction sizes for February–April 2026 and notes the next quarterly refunding announcement on May 6, 2026. It also details potential future changes to nominal coupon and FRN sizes based on projected borrowing needs.
Reliability note: The source is an official U.S. Treasury press release, a primary document for debt management guidance, enhancing credibility relative to secondary reporting.
Update · Feb 07, 2026, 07:24 PMin_progress
Claim restated: The Treasury anticipates maintaining nominal coupon and 2-year Floating Rate Note (FRN) auction sizes at the currently announced levels for at least the next several quarters, based on projected borrowing needs.
Progress evidence: The February 4, 2026 Treasury Quarterly Refunding Statement directly reiterates the policy and provides the specific auction sizes for the February–April 2026 quarter, showing commitment to holding steady in the near term.
Status assessment: There is no observed change to the announced sizes as of the current date, so the claim remains in_progress rather than completed.
Dates and milestones: The key milestone is the February 4, 2026 refunding statement; the next quarterly refunding update is expected on May 6, 2026, which will confirm sizes for the following quarter.
Reliability note: The primary source is the Treasury’s official press release, a high-quality and authoritative document. Secondary coverage (e.g., Reuters/KITCO summaries) corroborates the Treasury stance but should be treated as supplementary.
Contextual note: The Treasury emphasizes ongoing evaluation of potential future increases in nominal coupon and FRN auction sizes, contingent on structural demand and issuance costs/risks, which could alter the policy in the future.
Update · Feb 07, 2026, 04:56 PMin_progress
Claim restated: Treasury anticipates maintaining nominal coupon and FRN auction sizes for at least the next several quarters. The February 4, 2026 Treasury press release confirms this stance based on current projected borrowing needs and notes the agency will monitor demand and consider potential future increases to nominal coupon and FRN auction sizes. The release also provides anticipated auction sizes for February–April 2026, illustrating a plan to keep most sizes steady in the near term. There is no completion date in the statement, and the plan remains contingent on borrowing needs and market conditions, so the status is best characterized as in_progress.
Update · Feb 07, 2026, 03:06 PMin_progress
Claim restatement: Treasury anticipated maintaining nominal coupon and FRN auction sizes at current levels for the next several quarters based on anticipated borrowing needs. The February 4, 2026 Quarterly Refunding Statement explicitly states this baseline and notes ongoing monitoring of demand to determine if future increases are warranted. This is a forward-looking policy statement, not a completed action.
Evidence of progress: The document provides specific auction size tables for the February–April 2026 quarter across maturities, and describes how regular bill auctions, CMBs, and other instruments will be used to meet financing needs. It also indicates ongoing assessment of
SOMA purchases and demand to inform sizing decisions.
Completion status: There is no fixed completion date. The statement frames the current sizes as appropriate through the upcoming quarters, with potential future adjustments based on demand, costs, and issuance profiles. The next quarterly refunding announcement (May 6, 2026) will reflect any changes after the February–April 2026 period.
Dates and milestones: Key dates include the February 10–12, 2026 auctions and the February 17, 2026 settlement, followed by the May 6, 2026 refunding announcement. The document also delineates anticipated auction sizes for February–April 2026 and notes contingencies for seasonal variations.
Source reliability and caveats: The source is the Treasury’s official press release, a primary source for debt management policy. As a forward-looking statement, actual issuance sizes may differ due to evolving borrowing needs and market conditions.
Follow-up: To confirm whether the baseline held through May 2026, review the May 6, 2026 refunding announcement and related Treasury debt-management materials.
Update · Feb 07, 2026, 01:33 PMin_progress
Restated claim: Treasury anticipated maintaining nominal coupon and FRN auction sizes at current announced levels for the next several quarters. Evidence: the February 4, 2026 Quarterly Refunding Statement confirms planned sizes for February–April 2026, with stabilization of nominal coupon and FRN auctions unless borrowing needs change. Status: as of 2026-02-07, there is no reported deviation from these sizes; changes would be addressed via bill/CMB adjustments rather than to coupon/FRN issuance. Next milestones: the May 6, 2026 quarterly refunding announcement will confirm whether the near-term plan remains in place. Source: U.S. Department of the Treasury, SB0384 (Feb 4, 2026).
Update · Feb 07, 2026, 12:14 PMin_progress
Claim restatement: The Treasury anticipated maintaining nominal coupon and Floating Rate Note (FRN) auction sizes for at least the next several quarters based on current projected borrowing needs.
Evidence of progress: The February 4, 2026 Quarterly Refunding Statement confirms current auction sizes and states the expectation to keep nominal coupon and FRN sizes stable in the near term, with ongoing monitoring of
SOMA purchases and potential adjustments if borrowing needs shift.
Current status: As of February 7, 2026, there has been no public update indicating a change to the announced sizes; the pledge remains to maintain current levels through the near term, with the May 6, 2026 refunding announcement providing the next formal update on issuance plans.
Dates and milestones: The February 4, 2026 Quarterly Refunding Statement is the key milestone; the May 6, 2026 refunding announcement will reflect any changes to sizes or issuance strategy.
Source reliability note: The primary source is the U.S. Department of the Treasury’s own press release, which is the authoritative document for debt management. Coverage from market-news outlets is ancillary and should be weighed against the Treasury’s own wording. The claim is a near-term expectation rather than a completed policy change.
Update · Feb 07, 2026, 10:20 AMin_progress
Restatement of the claim: The Treasury said it anticipates maintaining nominal coupon and FRN auction sizes for at least the next several quarters, based on current projected borrowing needs. This language appears in the Treasury’s February 4, 2026 Quarterly Refunding Statement. The claim is a forecast about future issuance sizes rather than a completed action.
Evidence of progress: The February 4, 2026 statement itself provides the asserted baseline for future quarters, and the press release outlines the specific auction sizes for the February–April 2026 quarter as well as the plan to address variations via bill auction sizes and cash management bills. It also notes ongoing monitoring of
SOMA purchases and potential future adjustments to issuance profiles. No separate milestone beyond the stated plan is reported as completed in that release.
Current status of the promise: As of the source date, the Treasury has not completed a transition or a fixed completion event for maintaining the sizes; the language indicates a forward-looking stance to keep sizes steady for “the next several quarters.” Given that subsequent quarterly refunding updates would be the mechanism by which any changes are announced, the claim remains in_progress rather than complete or failed.
Dates and milestones: The key date is February 4, 2026 (the publication of the Quarterly Refunding Statement). The statement lists the specific nominal coupon and FRN auction sizes for the February–April 2026 quarter and frames future actions around the next several quarters. The next formal update would be the May 6, 2026 refunding announcement, which would confirm or revise these sizes depending on evolving borrowing needs. Reliability: The source is the Treasury’s official press materials, which are the primary and most authoritative reference for debt management plans. The language is explicit about conditions and potential future adjustments, reducing the likelihood of misinterpretation.
Overall assessment: The claim reflects Treasury guidance that sizes will likely stay unchanged for a multi-quarter horizon, but there has been no completion event; the status is best characterized as in_progress pending future refunding announcements and any contingent adjustments.
Update · Feb 07, 2026, 05:49 AMin_progress
Restated claim: The Treasury anticipated maintaining nominal coupon and FRN auction sizes for at least the next several quarters, based on current projected borrowing needs. The primary source confirms this as an explicit expectation, not a completed action, and ties it to ongoing funding needs and market demand conditions. No completion date is provided; the statement framed the approach as ongoing for the near term rather than a fixed milestone achieved.
Evidence of progress: The February 4, 2026 Treasury press release outlines the quarterly refunding plan and provides explicit auction size expectations for the February–April 2026 quarter, including nominal coupon and FRN sizes. It also notes that adjustments would be made through regular bill auctions and cash management bills to address variations in borrowing needs. The document further details the scheduled auction dates for the 3-year, 10-year, and 30-year issues, illustrating active execution aligned with the stated approach.
Current status of the promise: The pledge to maintain nominal coupon and FRN sizes remains part of Treasury’s guidance for the near term, with no published update indicating a change or termination of that stance. The press release emphasizes monitoring demand and potential future adjustments, suggesting the policy remains in effect unless superseded by new guidance. Therefore, the claim is still in_progress rather than completed or canceled.
Key dates and milestones: The press release specifies auctions for February 10–12, 2026, and notes that the next quarterly refunding announcement will be on May 6, 2026. It also provides the anticipated sizes for the February–April 2026 quarter, and outlines plans for rate and issuance adjustments if conditions shift. These milestones anchor the ongoing execution of the stated issuance framework.
Source reliability and caveats: The analysis relies on an official U.S. Treasury press release (SB0384, February 4, 2026), a high-quality primary source for debt management policies. Treasury statements are inherently biased toward planned issuance strategies, so the assessment notes that changes could occur if borrowing needs or market conditions diverge from projections. Overall, the source is credible for tracking policy direction and near-term issuance plans.
Update · Feb 07, 2026, 03:54 AMin_progress
The claim states that Treasury anticipates maintaining nominal coupon and FRN auction sizes for at least the next several quarters. Treasury’s February 4, 2026 Quarterly Refunding Statement explicitly confirms keeping those auction sizes steady based on current borrowing needs, with the prospect of evaluating potential future increases later. The document also outlines the specific auction size table and notes that adjustments would occur through bills or cash management operations if needs change, indicating the status is contingent on evolving funding needs. At this time, there is no indication that the announced sizes have changed; the completion condition (sizes staying at current levels for the indicated period) remains in progress rather than completed. Reliability of sources appears solid, including the Treasury release itself and corroborating coverage from Reuters and other financial outlets reporting on the statement.
Update · Feb 07, 2026, 01:49 AMin_progress
What the claim says: The Treasury stated that, based on current borrowing needs, it anticipates maintaining nominal coupon and FRN auction sizes for at least the next several quarters. This is a projection linked to the February–April 2026 refunding and the ongoing debt-management plan (Treasury press release; Reuters summary).
What evidence exists that progress has been made: The February 4, 2026 Treasury press release explicitly sets out the planned auction sizes for the February–April 2026 quarter and reiterates the expectation to keep nominal coupon and FRN sizes steady for several quarters. Reuters corroborated this language in their reporting on the same refunding announcement.
Completion status: As of the current date, the Treasury has not published a follow-up update indicating a material change to the stated size plan. The claim remains a stated expectation rather than a proven outcome, since actual future issuance would need to be observed in subsequent refunding announcements.
Dates and milestones: The relevant milestone is the February 4, 2026 quarterly refunding announcement, which specifies the $125 billion total and the intent to maintain nominal coupon and FRN auction sizes for the ensuing several quarters. The next quarterly refunding announcement is planned for May 6, 2026, which would provide an updated view on sizes.
Reliability and incentives: The primary sources are the U.S. Treasury’s official press release and mainstream financial reporting (Reuters). These sources are consistent and reflect standard debt-management practice. Given the Treasury’s incentives to manage funding costs and balance the SOMA portfolio, the stated intent to keep sizes stable aligns with addressing near-term borrowing needs while monitoring demand signals.
Update · Feb 07, 2026, 12:14 AMin_progress
The claim: Treasury anticipates maintaining nominal coupon and FRN auction sizes for at least the next several quarters. This expectation is stated in the Treasury’s quarterly refunding press release dated February 4, 2026. The document is an official source and provides the baseline for current auction sizing plans (nominal coupon and FRN) and the near-term stance on issuance profiles.
Evidence of progress includes the publication of specific auction sizes for the February–April 2026 quarter, showing sizes held at current levels across maturities and FRN/TIPS where applicable. The press release also notes ongoing monitoring of
SOMA purchases and potential future adjustments, indicating active management rather than a finalization of policy.
As for completion, the completion condition—sizes remaining at current levels for the indicated “next several quarters”—has not been definitively completed, since the statement expressly reserves the possibility of future increases and acknowledges uncertainty in borrowing needs. The status is therefore best described as in progress, contingent on market demand and fiscal projections.
Concrete milestones cited include the announced refunding schedule (with 3-year, 10-year, and 30-year auctions) and the assertion that any seasonal or unexpected variations will be addressed through bill auction adjustments or CMBs. The document also forecasts that additional changes could occur as the fiscal outlook evolves, with a next quarterly refunding announcement planned for May 2026.
Reliability: the primary source is the Treasury’s official press release (sb0384), a high-quality, direct source for debt-management plans. While the claim remains contingent on future data, the available evidence from the February 4, 2026 release supports ongoing maintenance of current sizes in the near term.
Update · Feb 06, 2026, 10:31 PMin_progress
Restated claim: The Treasury anticipated maintaining nominal coupon and FRN auction sizes for at least the next several quarters, based on current projected borrowing needs (Treasury press release SB0384, Feb 4, 2026). Evidence of progress: The February 4, 2026 quarterly refunding announcement confirms the plan to keep auction sizes at current levels for February–April 2026, including a table of sizes by maturity and FRN. Status of completion: The policy is described as ongoing, with the expectation to maintain sizes in the near term, and with the possibility of future adjustments being evaluated; the process remains in_progress pending the May 6, 2026 refunding update. Relevant dates/milestones: February 4, 2026 announcement detailing the February–April 2026 sizes and the next refunding update scheduled for May 6, 2026. Reliability note: The primary source is the Treasury press release, which provides the official schedule and language; market summaries corroborate the general approach but should be treated as secondary context.
Update · Feb 06, 2026, 08:09 PMin_progress
Restated claim: The Treasury anticipated maintaining nominal coupon and Floating Rate Note (FRN) auction sizes for at least the next several quarters. The Feb. 4, 2026 Treasury press release explicitly states this expectation, tying it to current projected borrowing needs and the ongoing assessment of issuance profiles. It also notes potential future increases to nominal coupon and FRN auction sizes could be evaluated going forward (Treasury, SB0384).
Evidence of progress: The release outlines the planned quarterly auction schedule for the February–April 2026 quarter, including nominal coupon and FRN sizes that are described as being maintained at current levels. It provides a detailed table of anticipated sizes for multiple tenors (e.g., 2-year through 30-year, plus FRN) and confirms that ongoing monitoring of SOMA activity and bill demand is in place. This indicates an operational path aligned with the stated maintenance of sizes through the near term (Treasury, SB0384).
Current status against the completion condition: As of the Feb 2026 release, the Treasury anticipates maintaining nominal coupon and FRN auction sizes for at least the next several quarters, but no later completion date is specified and future adjustments remain possible based on borrowing needs and market conditions. There is no evidence in the release that the sizes have definitively remained fixed through a confirmed multi-quarter window beyond the stated expectation; rather, the plan is to hold sizes with the option to adjust if warranted (Treasury, SB0384).
Dates and milestones: The release covers the refunding quarter February–April 2026 with specific auction timings for the 3-year, 10-year, and 30-year issues, and notes that the next quarterly refunding announcement will be May 6, 2026. It also mentions ongoing use of bills, CMBs, and other instruments to address financing needs (Treasury, SB0384).
Source reliability and assessment: The cited document is an official Treasury press release (SB0384, Feb 4, 2026), a primary primary-source for debt management policy. The data presented (auction sizes, schedules, and monitoring actions) align with standard Treasury communications and are consistent with prior quarterly refunding statements. No conflicting or independently verifiable evidence suggests a deviation from the stated plan at this time (Treasury, SB0384).
Update · Feb 06, 2026, 05:16 PMin_progress
What the claim states: The Treasury anticipates maintaining nominal coupon and Floating Rate Note (FRN) auction sizes for at least the next several quarters, based on current projected borrowing needs. The Feb. 4, 2026 Treasury press release explicitly repeats this stance for the February–April 2026 period and notes plans to keep auction sizes steady across nominal notes, bonds, and FRNs. It also indicates readiness to adjust if borrowing needs or issuance profiles change.
What progress exists toward the claim: The Treasury published a detailed Quarterly Refunding Statement on Feb. 4, 2026, including a table of actual auction sizes for Nov 2025 through Jan 2026 and anticipated sizes for Feb–Apr 2026. The document asserts that nominal coupon and FRN financing sizes will be maintained at current levels for the next several quarters, subject to monitoring of borrowing needs and market conditions.
Evidence of status (completed, in progress, or failed): The publication confirms the policy posture for the near term (through at least the next several quarters) but does not provide a completion event. Since the statement is a forward-looking plan rather than a completed action, it remains in_progress unless subsequent Treasury actions deviate from these sizes. There is no information indicating a cancellation or repeal of this stance.
Dates and milestones: The press release itself is dated February 4, 2026. It projects maintaining current auction sizes through the February–April 2026 quarter and references ongoing monitoring of SOMA activity and market demand. It also notes that the next quarterly refunding announcement will occur on May 6, 2026.
Source reliability and notes: The primary source is a formal U.S. Treasury press release, an official and high-quality source for debt management policy. The analysis here relies on the Treasury’s own statements and planned tables. Where relevant, the report cross-references the published refunding table and the stated continuation of current sizes.
Update · Feb 06, 2026, 03:24 PMin_progress
What the claim states: The Treasury anticipates maintaining nominal coupon and Floating Rate Note (FRN) auction sizes for at least the next several quarters, based on current projected borrowing needs. The February 4, 2026 Treasury press release explicitly presents this stance and provides a quarterly table of auction sizes through the February–April 2026 quarter, with a note that continued maintenance is expected into the following quarters.
Progress evidence: The press release outlines concrete auction size levels for both nominal coupons and FRNs for the February–April 2026 period and indicates ongoing monitoring of borrowing needs and issuance profiles. It also mentions that Treasury will address seasonal or unexpected variations via bill auction sizes or cash management bills, implying a plan to preserve the baseline sizes unless conditions change. The document further notes consideration of future increases, contingent on structural demand and costs/risks of issuance profiles.
Current status of the promise: The claim is not a completed action; rather, it reflects a policy forecast and intent for the near term. As of the press release, the sizes are described as being maintained for the “next several quarters,” with explicit caveats about monitoring demand and potential future adjustments. There is no finalized issuance halt or confirmation of an end date to this maintenance beyond the stated quarter-by-quarter outlook.
Dates and milestones: The key date is February 4, 2026, when the Treasury released the Quarterly Refunding Statement. The document covers the February–April 2026 quarter and notes that the next quarterly refunding announcement will be on May 6, 2026, which will provide updated guidance on sizes and issuance plans. The reported auction dates for the February–April period are February 10–12, 2026, with settlements on February 17, 2026.
Source reliability and incentives: The source is the U.S. Department of the Treasury, a primary official source for debt management. The report presents a transparent view of current borrowing needs and acknowledges possible future adjustments, reflecting fiscal policy incentives to manage debt issuance in line with market demand and cash needs. The statement also signals ongoing alignment with broader Treasury debt-management goals rather than a fixed long-term commitment, which supports cautious interpretation of the claim.
Update · Feb 06, 2026, 01:38 PMin_progress
The claim states that Treasury anticipates maintaining nominal coupon and Floating Rate Note (FRN) auction sizes for at least the next several quarters. The February 4, 2026 Treasury Quarterly Refunding Statement explicitly confirms this intent and provides the February–April 2026 auction sizes, showing no near-term increases for nominal coupons or FRNs. The statement also notes ongoing monitoring and the potential for future adjustments if borrowing needs or costs warrant changes, indicating the completion condition has not yet been reached. Overall, the evidence supports the claim as an ongoing forecast rather than a completed outcome, with concrete near-term milestones through May 2026. Reliability is high given the source is an official Treasury release; however, future changes depend on evolving fiscal conditions.
Update · Feb 06, 2026, 12:23 PMin_progress
The claim states that Treasury anticipates maintaining nominal coupon and Floating Rate Note (FRN) auction sizes for at least the next several quarters. The current status is grounded in the Treasury’s February 4, 2026 press release, which explicitly states that based on current borrowing needs, Treasury anticipates maintaining nominal coupon and FRN auction sizes for at least the next several quarters. The document also provides a quarterly table showing planned sizes through the February–April 2026 quarter and confirms ongoing monitoring of auction sizes. No public update has announced a change to this stance beyond that plan.
Evidence of progress includes the published refunding plan for February–April 2026, with nominal coupon and FRN sizes kept at current levels and a schedule indicating continuation through subsequent quarters. The press release also notes Treasury’s intent to evaluate potential future increases in response to demand trends, indicating a measured, conditional approach rather than a firm escalation. The presence of explicit, near-term auction size tables supports that progress is being tracked and maintained as planned.
As of now, the promise remains in progress rather than completed. The completion condition—keeping auction sizes at announced levels for the indicated period—depends on Treasury’s adherence to the stated plan through upcoming quarters, with no confirmed deviation reported publicly. The next public milestone appears to be the May 6, 2026 quarterly refunding announcement, which would reflect whether the sizes are sustained in the near term. The reliance on official Treasury communications reduces the likelihood of undisclosed changes, but formal confirmation will come via subsequent refunding releases.
Reliability note: the primary source is the U.S. Treasury’s official February 4, 2026 press release detailing the refunding plan and auction-size expectations. This is a high-quality, primary source for debt-management policy and issuance plans. Supplementary context from Treasury’s refunding schedule and related notices reinforces the accuracy of the stated stance and timeline.
Update · Feb 06, 2026, 09:54 AMin_progress
The claim states that Treasury anticipates maintaining nominal coupon and Floating Rate Note (FRN) auction sizes for at least the next several quarters. The Treasury’s February 4, 2026 press release explicitly confirms this intention, stating the sizes are to be maintained based on current projected borrowing needs. The document also notes that any seasonal or unexpected variations would be addressed through changes in regular bill auction sizes or cash management bills, indicating a mechanism to adapt if conditions change. Concrete milestones cited include the February–April 2026 refunding schedule and the next quarterly refunding announcement on May 6, 2026, which will indicate whether the plan holds steady. Overall, the official source is clear, but the status remains contingent on evolving borrowing needs and market conditions, so the completion status is not yet determined.
Update · Feb 06, 2026, 05:22 AMin_progress
Restated claim: Treasury anticipated maintaining nominal coupon and Floating Rate Note (FRN) auction sizes for at least the next several quarters, based on current borrowing needs. Evidence from Treasury materials released in early February 2026 indicates that the department planned steady-sized auctions and an unchanged overall financing posture for nominal notes and FRNs through the near term.
Update · Feb 06, 2026, 04:34 AMin_progress
Summary of the claim: The Treasury stated that, based on current projected borrowing needs, it anticipates maintaining nominal coupon and FRN auction sizes for at least the next several quarters.
Evidence of progress: The Treasury’s February 4, 2026 quarterly refunding statement reiterates the plan to keep nominal coupon and FRN auction sizes at current levels through the February–April 2026 quarter, with further monitoring of demand and issuance profiles for potential future adjustments. The document provides the specific auction-size table for the upcoming quarter and notes ongoing evaluation of issuance approaches.
Current status: As of February 2026, the policy remains a forward-looking expectation rather than a completed action. The statement also indicates that Treasury will address variations in borrowing needs via bill auctions and cash management operations, preserving flexibility.
Reliability and context: The source is the Treasury’s official quarterly refunding statement (press release), a primary and authoritative document for debt-management policy. It presents explicit, date-bound guidance and acknowledges potential future changes, reflecting standard Treasury practice and incentives to manage financing costs and liquidity. The next scheduled refunding announcement will be in May 2026, which will indicate whether the stated sizes were maintained.
Update · Feb 06, 2026, 02:00 AMin_progress
Brief restatement of the claim: The Treasury stated that, based on current projected borrowing needs, it anticipates maintaining nominal coupon and Floating Rate Note (FRN) auction sizes for at least the next several quarters. The February 4, 2026 Quarterly Refunding Statement reiterates this forecast for upcoming issuance through the February–April 2026 quarter and notes ongoing monitoring of bill demand and SOMA considerations. In short, the claim describes a planned, not yet completed, policy stance rather than a confirmed outcome.
Evidence of progress toward the claim: The Treasury publicly lays out the planned auction sizes for the February–April 2026 quarter, including nominal coupon and FRN sizes, and commits to address variations through regular bill auctions and cash management bills. The statement also provides a detailed schedule of anticipated auction sizes for March and April 2026, demonstrating concrete planning aligned with the forecast. These are routine debt-management steps rather than milestones that would constitute completion.
Evidence on completion status: The document emphasizes the expectation to maintain current nominal coupon and FRN auction sizes “for at least the next several quarters,” with explicit caveats that future issuance profiles will be evaluated as needed. There is no indication of a finalized adjustment or confirmation that the current levels are definitively locked beyond the stated horizon. Therefore, the completion criterion (sizes remaining at current levels for the indicated period) is not yet verifiably fulfilled.
Dates and milestones: The release is dated February 4, 2026. It outlines auction plans for February–April 2026 and notes that the next quarterly refunding announcement will occur on May 6, 2026. It also cites ongoing actions, such as a buyback schedule and a potential transition to FedTrade Plus, which could influence issuance dynamics over time. These milestones are informative for monitoring progress rather than confirmatory of completion.
Reliability and sourcing: The primary source is the U.S. Department of the Treasury’s official February 4, 2026 press release (Quarterly Refunding Statement by Brian Smith). The document is a direct policy statement from the issuing authority, complemented by a transparent table of anticipated auction sizes. While the release reflects Treasury intentions, the forecasting nature means outcomes depend on evolving borrowing needs and market conditions. Overall, the source is authoritative and appropriate for assessing the claim.
Update · Feb 05, 2026, 11:43 PMin_progress
Claim restatement: The Treasury anticipates maintaining nominal coupon and Floating Rate Note (FRN) auction sizes for at least the next several quarters, based on current projected borrowing needs.
Progress and evidence: The February 4, 2026 Quarterly Refunding Statement reiterates that the agency expects to keep sizes steady and address borrowing needs through a mix of bills, notes, bonds, and FRNs, with specific sizes outlined for February–April 2026.
Status of completion: There is no completed action yet; the document describes a forward-looking plan and ongoing monitoring, not a final implementation or closure of policy.
Dates and milestones: The statement covers the February–April 2026 quarter and notes the next quarterly refunding announcement on May 6, 2026, along with the planned auction sizes across maturities and FRN.
Source reliability: The primary source is the U.S. Treasury, which provides the official schedule and rationale; independent coverage corroborates the gist but should be read as reporting rather than primary data.
Notes on interpretation: The claim remains an issued forecast rather than a completed action, pending future borrowing conditions and potential adjustments if needs change.
Update · Feb 05, 2026, 10:04 PMin_progress
The claim is that Treasury anticipates maintaining nominal coupon and floating-rate note (FRN) auction sizes for at least the next several quarters. A Treasury press release dated February 4, 2026, explicitly states that, based on current projected borrowing needs, Treasury anticipates maintaining nominal coupon and FRN auction sizes for at least the next several quarters. This provides contemporaneous official acknowledgement that sizes are expected to stay near current levels over the near term. The document also presents a detailed auction table for the February–April 2026 quarter, reinforcing the intention to keep sizes broadly steady through that period.
Update · Feb 05, 2026, 08:17 PMin_progress
The claim states that Treasury anticipates maintaining nominal coupon and FRN auction sizes for at least the next several quarters. The primary public evidence is Treasury’s February 4, 2026 Quarterly Refunding Statement, which repeats that assessment and outlines planned sizes for February–April 2026, while noting ongoing monitoring of
SOMA purchases and considerations of potential future size changes. There is no indication in the document that the current sizes have been completed or locked in permanently; rather, the statement emphasizes a continuation at current levels given projected borrowing needs.
Progress evidence includes the detailed auction size table for Nov 2025 through Apr 2026, showing current sizes kept steady across maturities, and explicit language that Treasury expects to maintain nominal coupon and FRN auction sizes for several quarters. The press release also mentions the possibility of future increases, contingent on trends in structural demand and costs/risks of issuance profiles, suggesting an adaptive approach rather than a final completion.
As of the current date, there is not a finalized completion of the claim; the status is a forward-looking expectation rather than an implemented policy stasis. The document also notes that adjustments could occur through regular bill auction sizes, CMBs, and seasonal factors, indicating ongoing flexibility. Overall, the claim remains a stated Treasury expectation, with explicit caveats and planned review.
Source reliability: the primary source is a Treasury press release (Feb 4, 2026), an official government document detailing debt management plans. Coverage corroborates the same language and numbers within the release. Supplementary reporting appears from financial news outlets, but the Treasury document is the authoritative basis for the claim.
Reliability note: the claim aligns with a formal, official Treasury statement, though it is inherently contingent on borrowing needs and future policy considerations; this supports categorizing the status as in_progress rather than complete or failed.
Follow-up note: the next quarterly refunding announcement is scheduled for May 6, 2026, which provides a concrete milestone to verify whether sizes have continued at current levels or have changed.
Update · Feb 05, 2026, 05:52 PMin_progress
The claim states that Treasury anticipates maintaining nominal coupon and FRN auction sizes for at least the next several quarters. The February 4, 2026 Treasury press release explicitly communicates this intention and provides auction sizes for Feb–Apr 2026, with language about addressing variations via bills and cash management operations. As of now, this remains forward-looking and has not yet been demonstrated over multiple quarters; the next milestone to assess progress is the May 6, 2026 quarterly refunding announcement.
Update · Feb 05, 2026, 03:38 PMin_progress
Brief restatement of the claim: The Treasury stated that, based on current projected borrowing needs, it anticipates maintaining nominal coupon and FRN auction sizes at their current levels for the next several quarters.
Evidence of progress: The Treasury’s February 4, 2026 Quarterly Refunding Statement explicitly notes that it plans to maintain nominal coupon and FRN auction sizes for at least the next several quarters, reflecting current borrowing needs and the structure of the SOMA portfolio. The release also provides a detailed table of anticipated auction sizes for the February–April 2026 quarter, showing steady sizes across most maturities.
Progress status against the promise: The document confirms the stated maintenance of auction sizes through the upcoming refunding quarter and indicates ongoing monitoring of market demand and potential future considerations for increases. There is no final completion or cancellation; rather, the commitment is contingent on evolving borrowing needs and market conditions, consistent with Treasury practice.
Dates and milestones: The key milestone is the February 2026 quarterly refunding cycle, with auctions scheduled Feb 10–12, 2026 and settlement Feb 17, 2026. The statement also notes that the next quarterly refunding announcement will occur on May 6, 2026, at which point Treasury may reaffirm or adjust sizes.
Source reliability and notes: The primary source is the U.S. Department of the Treasury’s official February 4, 2026 Quarterly Refunding Statement by Deputy Assistant Secretary Brian Smith. The document directly addresses auction sizes and any potential future changes, making it the most authoritative reference for this claim. Coverage from independent outlets corroborates the general interpretation, but the Treasury release itself is definitive for the stated period.
Update · Feb 05, 2026, 02:47 PMin_progress
Restated claim: The Treasury anticipates maintaining nominal coupon and FRN auction sizes for at least the next several quarters. The February 4, 2026 Treasury press release explicitly states this expectation and provides the anticipated sizes for the February–April 2026 quarter, indicating no planned near-term increases in those channels. Evidence of progress: the release confirms current auction sizes and outlines ongoing monitoring of
SOMA purchases and demand, with a stated plan to address variations via bill auctions or cash management bills. However, there is no definitive completion confirmation; the statement is forward-looking and contingent on borrowing needs and market conditions, with the next quarterly refunding update due in May 2026 to signal whether sizes remained at the announced levels.
Update · Feb 05, 2026, 12:04 PMin_progress
Claim restated: The Treasury anticipates maintaining nominal coupon and Floating Rate Note (FRN) auction sizes for at least the next several quarters, based on current projected borrowing needs. This was stated in the Treasury’s Quarterly Refunding Statement released on February 4, 2026 (Treasury press release, 2026-02-04).
Evidence of progress: The February 4, 2026 press release explicitly lays out the anticipated auction sizes for upcoming quarters and confirms the plan to keep nominal coupon and FRN financing at current levels, with adjustments only if borrowing needs shift. The document provides a quarterly table showing sizes through the February–April 2026 quarter and forecasts for the May–July period (Treasury, 2026-02-04).
Status assessment: There is no completed or reversed action as of today; the completion condition—sizes remaining at current levels for the indicated period—has not been triggered. The Treasury indicates it will monitor demand and borrowing needs and may adjust sizes if conditions change, with the next quarterly refunding announcement scheduled for May 6, 2026 (Treasury, 2026-02-04).
Source reliability: The primary source is an official U.S. Treasury press release, a high-quality, authoritative document for debt management policy. As with any forward-looking policy statement, the claim depends on future borrowing needs and market conditions, which could alter sizes before the next update (Treasury, 2026-02-04).
Update · Feb 05, 2026, 09:43 AMin_progress
Claim restated: The Treasury anticipated maintaining nominal coupon and FRN auction sizes for at least the next several quarters. The February 4, 2026 Treasury press release explicitly states this intention and provides the projected table of auction sizes through March–April 2026, with a note that changes would be addressed via bill auction sizes or cash management bills as needed.
Evidence of progress: The document outlines the actual and proposed sizes for the February–April 2026 quarter, including nominal coupon and FRN financing levels that Treasury says are well positioned to address borrowing needs. It also indicates ongoing monitoring of
SOMA purchases and private-sector demand, which supports its ability to maintain the stated sizes in the near term.
Current status of the promise: The claim remains in progress. There has been no evidence of a reversal or deviation from maintaining the announced sizes, but the completion condition (maintaining sizes at current levels for the indicated future quarters) cannot be deemed complete until those quarters have elapsed and Treasury confirms continued maintenance.
Dates and milestones: The press release covers the February–April 2026 quarter, with the next quarterly refunding announcement anticipated on May 6, 2026. It also notes potential future increases in nominal coupon and FRN auction sizes if structural demand or costs/risk profiles warrant changes. Source reliability is high, as the issuer is the U.S. Treasury; the information is an official, official-source policy document.
Update · Feb 05, 2026, 05:40 AMin_progress
Restated claim: The Treasury said it expected to maintain nominal coupon and FRN auction sizes for at least the next several quarters, based on current projected borrowing needs. The claim is drawn from the February 4, 2026 Treasury quarterly refunding statement, which explicitly states this maintenance of sizes and notes that future increases are being evaluated. There is no completion in the record; the statement is a forward-looking plan rather than a completed action.
Evidence of progress: The press release provides concrete, near-term auction sizes for February–April 2026 across maturities, and reiterates the intent to keep nominal coupon and FRN auction sizes steady in that period. It also describes monitoring of
SOMA purchases, bill demand, and the possibility of adjustments if borrowing needs shift. This establishes a baseline of stability rather than a completed restructuring or expansion.
Current status assessment: As of February 4, 2026, the policy stance remains to hold sizes steady for the next several quarters with the possibility of future increases if structural demand or costs/risks warrant it. The document also outlines a plan to address seasonal variations through bill auctions or cash management bills, indicating ongoing management rather than finalization of a policy change. Therefore, the claim remains in_progress rather than completed or failed.
Reliability and milestones: The primary source is a formal Treasury press release and accompanying material, a high-reliability government source. Related milestones include the February–April 2026 auction schedule and the May 6, 2026 quarterly refunding announcement, which will indicate whether any changes to sizes occurred. Overall, the evidence supports a continued, cautious approach with explicit monitoring and conditional readiness to adjust.
Update · Feb 05, 2026, 04:08 AMin_progress
The claim states that Treasury anticipates maintaining nominal coupon and FRN auction sizes for at least the next several quarters. The available public document from Treasury (February 4, 2026) reiterates this stance as part of its Quarterly Refunding Statement and outlines the expected auction sizes through the February–April 2026 quarter. There is no evidence in the sources that the stated sizes have been completed or permanently fixed beyond the forecast; the document indicates ongoing monitoring and potential adjustments based on borrowing needs. Key milestones include the announced 3-year, 10-year, and 30-year auction sizes for the February 2026 quarter and the projected continuation of those sizes into the next several quarters. Reliability of the claim rests on a primary-source government document that explicitly states the expectation to maintain auction sizes, with caveats about possible future changes depending on demand and fiscal conditions. Overall, the claim remains a forecast rather than a completed, fixed outcome, pending subsequent quarterly refunding announcements.
Update · Feb 05, 2026, 02:29 AMin_progress
Claim restatement: The Treasury anticipated maintaining nominal coupon and FRN auction sizes at current levels for at least the next several quarters. Evidence of progress: In the February 4, 2026 Quarterly Refunding Statement, Treasury explicitly states it plans to keep nominal coupon and FRN auction sizes at current levels through the February–April 2026 quarter and notes ongoing monitoring of bills and potential future adjustments (Treasury press release, Feb 4, 2026). Status: The document outlines near-term intent and schedules, but does not declare final completion or permanence beyond the near term. Completion status: The commitment remains forward-looking as of today; actual auction sizes will be confirmed in subsequent quarterly updates (next update due May 6, 2026). Dates/milestones: February 4, 2026 (Quarterly Refunding Statement) with February–April 2026 sizes; May 6, 2026 update to confirm subsequent sizes. Reliability: The source is the Treasury’s official press release, a primary and authoritative document for debt-management decisions; corroboration from financial-news outlets around the period supports the same framing.
Update · Feb 04, 2026, 11:59 PMin_progress
What the claim stated: The Treasury said it anticipated maintaining nominal coupon and FRN auction sizes at current announced levels for at least the next several quarters. This reflects a plan rather than a completed action as of the date of publication (Feb 4, 2026).
Evidence of progress: The February 4, 2026 Treasury Quarterly Refunding Statement explicitly lists current nominal coupon and FRN auction sizes as the baseline and states Treasury will address variations through other tools (e.g., bill auctions, CMBs) while monitoring demand and fiscal needs. It also provides detailed auction-size tables for February–April 2026, indicating explicit sizes that Treasury intends to hold through the period.
Current status of the promise: The document presents the intention to keep sizes steady for the next several quarters and notes ongoing evaluation of potential future increases. There is no final completion cited, and subsequent quarterly announcements will determine whether sizes are maintained beyond the stated window.
Dates and milestones: The press release covers the February–April 2026 quarter with specific auction sizes for each maturity and the FRN, and notes the next quarterly refunding announcement will occur on May 6, 2026. It also mentions ongoing monitoring of SOMA bill purchases and private-sector demand.
Update · Feb 04, 2026, 09:38 PMin_progress
Claim restated: The Treasury anticipated maintaining nominal coupon and 2-year FRN auction sizes at their currently announced levels for at least the next several quarters.
Evidence of progress: The February 4, 2026 Quarterly Refunding Statement confirms the near-term intention to keep nominal coupon and FRN auction sizes stable through the February–April 2026 period, with explicit monitoring of demand and the potential for modest future adjustments as needed.
Current status and completion: There is no final completion date; the policy is described as contingent on current borrowing needs and market conditions, with adjustments to bill auction sizes or buyback operations used to address variations.
Milestones and reliability: The next quarterly update is the May 6, 2026 refunding announcement, which will signal whether sizes have continued to be maintained. The claim rests on the Treasury’s official, authoritative document, lending strong reliability to the stated near-term stance.
Update · Feb 04, 2026, 08:18 PMin_progress
Restated claim: The Treasury anticipates maintaining nominal coupon and Floating Rate Note (FRN) auction sizes for at least the next several quarters. The February 4, 2026 Quarterly Refunding Statement reiterates this intention, outlining planned auction sizes and explicit language that sizes will be kept near current levels in the near term. The document also notes potential future adjustments if borrowing needs or market conditions change.
Evidence of progress: The Treasury published a detailed refunding plan for February–April 2026, including fixed auction sizes across nominal coupons and FRNs for that period. The release states that, based on current projected borrowing needs, the department "anticipates maintaining nominal coupon and FRN auction sizes for at least the next several quarters" and provides a table of anticipated sizes through March–April 2026. This establishes a concrete, near-term benchmark rather than a mere intention.
Current status and milestones: The plan covers specific auction sizes for 2-, 3-, 5-, 7-, 10-, 20-, and 30-year maturities, plus FRNs, with scheduled auctions on Feb 10–12, 2026 and settlement Feb 17, 2026. Treasury also commits to addressing variations through changes to bill auction sizes or cash management bills, indicating flexibility within the stated maintenance stance. There is no indication of a completed change or reversal in the announced sizes as of the publication date.
Reliability and context: The source is a primary, official Treasury press release (February 4, 2026), which provides explicit policy language and a detailed breakdown of anticipated issuance. The document situates the stated maintenance of sizes within broader debt-management considerations, including cash balance expectations and potential future adjustments. Given the official nature of the source, the information is reliable for describing Treasury’s stated plan at that time.
Follow-up note: To assess whether the promise remains in effect, a post-quarter update or the next quarterly refunding announcement should be reviewed. If the Treasury does not maintain the currently announced sizes beyond the next several quarters, the status would shift toward completed or failed to maintain depending on the outcome of the subsequent communications.
Original article · Feb 04, 2026