The statement is not 100% exact but close enough for a reasonable person (e.g., claimed 70% vs. actual 65%). Learn more in Methodology.
Murder rate in the nation’s largest cities is lower than in any year in the previous 125 years and reflects the largest single-year decline on record.
Data from the Council on Criminal Justice (CCJ) show homicides in a sample of 35 large U.S. cities fell about 21% in 2025, and CCJ estimates that if nationwide FBI data align with their sample the national homicide rate could fall to about 4.0 per 100,000 (the lowest level since about 1900) and would constitute the largest single-year percentage decline on record. CCJ and major news outlets (Axios, NYT, CBS) describe this outcome as likely or possible but expressly note the finding is preliminary, based on a city sample and an extrapolation pending final FBI national data; CCJ cautions differences in reporting and that the estimate is not yet definitive. Verdict: Close — the claim matches CCJ’s reported finding and mainstream coverage, but it is provisional (an estimate from a sample and contingent on final FBI data) and therefore not yet an established historical fact without the FBI’s full-year, nationwide confirmation.