Administration says real wages are on track to rise 4.2% in Trump’s first full year

Misleading

Facts are technically correct but framed in a way that likely leads to a wrong impression. Learn more in Methodology.

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Official labor‑market/wage statistics show a 4.2% real wage increase for the president’s first full year.

Source summary
The White House article credits President Trump’s 2025 mass deportation and immigration-enforcement actions with improving housing affordability, raising wages in some blue-collar industries, increasing native-born employment, and reducing several categories of violent crime. It cites specific statistics and selected city-level examples (Washington, D.C.; Chicago; Memphis; New Orleans) to argue these outcomes are the result of the administration’s policies. The piece frames these changes as delivering on an "America First" agenda and criticizes Democrats who, it says, oppose the measures.
Latest fact check

Bureau of Labor Statistics data show that real average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls increased 1.1% from December 2024 to December 2025, not 4.2%. Real average hourly earnings from November 2024 to November 2025 rose 0.8%, and other official measures of real wage growth in 2025 (including real weekly earnings and median usual weekly earnings) are in a similar low-single-digit range, not above 4%. The 4.2% figure corresponds approximately to nominal average hourly earnings growth over some 12‑month windows in 2025, while inflation (CPI‑U) was about 2.7%, so real wage gains were far smaller.

The verdict is Misleading because the statement labels a roughly 4.2% nominal wage increase as “real wages,” and claims workers are “on track” for that level of real growth in Trump’s first full year, but official post‑year data show actual real wage growth was around 1% and never close to 4.2%.

Timeline

  1. Update · Jan 15, 2026, 05:24 AMMisleading
    Bureau of Labor Statistics data show that real average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls increased 1.1% from December 2024 to December 2025, not 4.2%. Real average hourly earnings from November 2024 to November 2025 rose 0.8%, and other official measures of real wage growth in 2025 (including real weekly earnings and median usual weekly earnings) are in a similar low-single-digit range, not above 4%. The 4.2% figure corresponds approximately to nominal average hourly earnings growth over some 12‑month windows in 2025, while inflation (CPI‑U) was about 2.7%, so real wage gains were far smaller. The verdict is Misleading because the statement labels a roughly 4.2% nominal wage increase as “real wages,” and claims workers are “on track” for that level of real growth in Trump’s first full year, but official post‑year data show actual real wage growth was around 1% and never close to 4.2%.
  2. Original article · Jan 14, 2026

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