Dealers report $258B downward revision to FY2026–28 borrowing estimates and project $1.1T shortfall in FY2027–28

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The Treasury minutes explicitly record the $258 billion reduction and the $1.1 trillion FY2027–28 shortfall projection as described.

Source summary

The Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee met in a closed session on February 3, 2026, to review fiscal projections, dealer forecasts, and investor demand trends and to provide issuance guidance. Treasury staff reported large swings in Q1 FY2026 receipts and outlays, dealers reduced FY2026-28 borrowing estimates by $258 billion and signaled a potential $1.1 trillion privately-held funding shortfall in FY2027-28. The Committee discussed SOFR-indexed FRNs, alternative buyback mechanisms, and a proposal to issue 7-year notes quarterly with reopenings, and unanimously recommended maintaining current nominal coupon, FRN, and TIPS auction sizes.

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Latest fact check

The U.S. Department of the Treasury’s official minutes of the Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee meeting (Feb. 3, 2026) state that “the median primary dealer reduced its aggregate FY2026-28 privately-held marketable borrowing estimate by $258 billion” and that the “median primary dealer forecast for privately-held net marketable borrowing implies a $1.1 trillion funding shortfall in FY2027-28 based on current coupon auction sizes and bill supply.” These phrases appear verbatim in the Treasury minutes, confirming both the $258 billion downward revision and the $1.1 trillion shortfall projection. Verdict: True — the claim accurately reflects the official Treasury TBAC minutes, a primary source that directly supports the statement.

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Update · Feb 04, 2026, 08:20 PMTrue
The U.S. Department of the Treasury’s official minutes of the Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee meeting (Feb. 3, 2026) state that “the median primary dealer reduced its aggregate FY2026-28 privately-held marketable borrowing estimate by $258 billion” and that the “median primary dealer forecast for privately-held net marketable borrowing implies a $1.1 trillion funding shortfall in FY2027-28 based on current coupon auction sizes and bill supply.” These phrases appear verbatim in the Treasury minutes, confirming both the $258 billion downward revision and the $1.1 trillion shortfall projection. Verdict: True — the claim accurately reflects the official Treasury TBAC minutes, a primary source that directly supports the statement.
Original article · Feb 04, 2026
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