The article is drawing on several standard Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data products from the November 2025 Employment Situation release and associated series:
• Overall job gains and the claim that the private sector gained 121,000 jobs while federal employment fell 168,000 between September and November 2025 come from the Current Employment Statistics (CES) establishment survey as reported in the Employment Situation, Table B‑1, “Employees on nonfarm payrolls by industry sector and selected industry detail.” In that table, “Total private” and “Federal government” payroll employment (series such as CEU0500000001 for total private) are measured in thousands of jobs, usually seasonally adjusted, and compared across months. • The statement that 687,000 private‑sector jobs have been added since President Trump took office uses the CES series for “All employees, total private” (CEU0500000001 / USPRIV) and subtracts the January 2025 level from the latest available month. This is a count of jobs on private nonfarm payrolls, not people. • The 52,000 construction jobs added over three months are from the CES construction series “All employees, construction” (CES2000000001 / USCONS), again measured as thousands of nonfarm payroll jobs. • The numbers on 2.7 million native‑born Americans gaining employment and 972,000 foreign‑born workers losing employment, and the labor‑force changes cited, use data from the Current Population Survey (CPS) household survey, specifically the BLS nativity series that underlie Employment Situation Table A‑7 (“Employment status of the civilian population by nativity and sex”) and series such as LNU02073413 (Employment level – native born) and LNU02073395 (Employment level – foreign born). These series count people (civilian, non‑institutional population age 16+), not jobs, and are based on monthly CPS interviews, typically seasonally adjusted.
In summary, job counts by sector (private vs federal, construction, etc.) are from the CES establishment survey and Employment Situation Table B‑1, and the native‑born vs foreign‑born employment and labor‑force figures are from CPS nativity series summarized in Employment Situation Table A‑7. All are monthly measures in thousands, with the CES series counting jobs on nonfarm payrolls and the CPS series counting individuals in the labor force or employed.
In the BLS Current Employment Statistics (CES) program used in the Employment Situation report, the key distinctions are:
• Private‑sector employment – Defined as all employees on nonfarm payrolls in private industries (the “Total private” category in Table B‑1). – It covers wage and salary workers on the payrolls of private businesses and non‑profit organizations classified in nonfarm industries under NAICS (for example, manufacturing, construction, retail trade, health care, finance, professional services, etc.). – It excludes: farm employment; self‑employed workers; unpaid family workers; private household workers; and all levels of government. CES counts jobs, so a person with two private‑sector jobs appears twice.
• Government employment / federal government employment – In the same CES framework, “Government” is a separate supersector, split into “Federal government,” “State government,” and “Local government” in Table B‑1. – “Federal government” employment is all employees on the payrolls of U.S. federal government agencies and enterprises (including, for example, the Postal Service and federal civilian agencies) in nonfarm activities. – Like private‑sector CES data, these are counts of jobs on payrolls, measured in thousands and typically seasonally adjusted.
Thus, when the article contrasts “private sector” with “federal government” jobs, it is using the CES nonfarm payroll categories “Total private” versus the “Federal government” component of the “Government” sector as they appear in Employment Situation Table B‑1.
The native‑born vs foreign‑born figures come from the BLS Current Population Survey (CPS) household data, which classify people by nativity using these definitions and methods:
• Native‑born – BLS defines the native‑born population as “people born in the United States or one of its outlying areas such as Puerto Rico or Guam or who were born abroad of at least one parent who was a U.S. citizen.”
• Foreign‑born – BLS defines the foreign‑born population as “persons residing in the United States who were not U.S. citizens at birth. That is, they were born outside the United States or one of its outlying areas such as Puerto Rico or Guam, to parents neither of whom was a U.S. citizen.” – This category includes legally admitted immigrants, refugees, temporary residents (such as students and temporary workers), and undocumented immigrants, as long as they reside in the U.S.
• How the statistics are produced – The figures come from the monthly CPS, a probability sample of about 60,000 households that covers the civilian non‑institutional population age 16 and over. – BLS uses CPS responses on nativity to produce monthly employment and labor‑force levels by nativity, summarized in Employment Situation Table A‑7 (“Employment status of the civilian population by nativity and sex”) and in the annual “Foreign‑born workers: Labor force characteristics” release. – These data count people, not jobs, and are weighted to represent national totals; they are usually presented in thousands, with both seasonally adjusted and not‑seasonally‑adjusted versions.
The article’s numbers on native‑born versus foreign‑born employment and labor‑force changes are therefore counts of people classified by these nativity definitions in the CPS household survey.
Public BLS documentation makes clear how “real wages” (real earnings) are normally calculated, but the White House’s specific 4.2% projection for 2025 is only partially reconstructable:
• BLS method for real wages/earnings – BLS publishes a separate Real Earnings news release each month. It states that real average hourly and real average weekly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls are calculated by deflating the CES nominal average earnings series with the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI‑U). – In other words, Real earnings ≈ (CES average hourly or weekly earnings for all employees, total private) ÷ (CPI‑U price index), both indexed to the same base period, and then compared across time to get percentage changes.
• Likely basis of the 4.2% figure – The claim that “Americans’ real wages are on track to rise by 4.2% in the first full year of the Trump Administration” appears to be a projection based on BLS real earnings data available through November 2025. Because the article is dated December 16, 2025 and BLS data for December were not yet released, the White House likely extrapolated the nearly completed 12‑month change in real average weekly or hourly earnings (all employees, total private) into a full‑year estimate. – BLS does not publish a 4.2% figure labeled exactly as “first full year of the Trump Administration,” nor has BLS released a methodological note that matches this White House framing. Thus the exact choice of base month, whether hourly vs weekly earnings were used, and the precise projection method are not fully documented publicly.
• What can be said with confidence – Real wage or real earnings growth in this context refers to the percentage change over roughly January–December 2025 in inflation‑adjusted average earnings for private‑sector employees. – The underlying inflation measure is the CPI‑U, which BLS explicitly identifies as the deflator used for its official real earnings series that the White House is drawing from. – The 4.2% figure itself is a White House projection built on those BLS real earnings series; its exact construction cannot be independently verified from BLS publications alone.
The “Democrat Shutdown” is the Trump White House’s partisan label for the federal government shutdown that began on October 1, 2025, after Congress and President Trump failed to agree on appropriations to keep the government funded.
• What happened and when – Funding for many federal agencies lapsed at the start of the 2026 fiscal year (October 1, 2025) because no full‑year spending bills or continuing resolution had been enacted. – As a result, the federal government began shutting down most non‑essential operations: hundreds of thousands of federal workers were furloughed or worked without pay, and many services and agencies curtailed operations. News coverage at the time documented major disruptions across departments, courts, and public services.
• Why the White House calls it the “Democrat Shutdown” – The Trump administration branded the episode the “Democrat Shutdown,” arguing that Democratic lawmakers were responsible for the impasse by insisting on including certain health‑care and immigration provisions (such as extended subsidies and coverage for undocumented immigrants) in funding legislation. A White House statement on October 3, 2025 warned that “all 50 states will see a devastating economic hit in Democrat Shutdown,” framing the shutdown as driven by Democrats’ demands.
• Link to the jobs claim – In the article you are reading, the administration attributes an estimated loss of up to 62,000 potential private‑sector jobs in October 2025 to this shutdown. That 62,000‑job figure is not part of any official BLS estimate; it comes from internal White House modeling (reportedly by the Council of Economic Advisers) of how the shutdown could depress payroll growth relative to a no‑shutdown baseline.
Thus, the term “Democrat Shutdown” refers to the October 2025 federal government funding lapse and ensuing partial shutdown, described in neutral reporting simply as the 2025 U.S. government shutdown, but framed by the administration as being caused by Democrats in Congress.
Karoline Leavitt is the White House Press Secretary in President Donald Trump’s second administration and is the official quoted in the article.
• Background and position – Karoline Claire Leavitt (born 1997) is an American political spokesperson and Republican operative. She previously worked in communications roles in Trump’s first term, including as assistant press secretary. – In 2025 she was appointed the 36th White House Press Secretary, becoming the youngest person to hold the position. As press secretary, she leads the White House press office and serves as the administration’s chief spokesperson to the media.
• Role and authority over economic messaging – The press secretary’s formal role is to convey and defend the president’s positions and the administration’s interpretation of data, including economic statistics. While she does not produce the underlying economic data herself, she presents claims that are typically prepared with input from the Council of Economic Advisers, the National Economic Council, and the Office of Management and Budget, and she speaks with the institutional authority of the White House.
In this article, Leavitt is therefore acting in her official capacity as the Trump administration’s chief spokesperson, summarizing and framing BLS data in support of the administration’s economic narrative.